Who can say what might happen if Trump wins, but while a stalemate followed by a peace agreement where Ukraine still loses Crimea and etc seems possible, a complete military victory over all of Ukraine seems like pure fantasy. Y’all can prepare the Russian people for whatever you want, but if you can’t take the land, it’s not gonna help.

[–] Mihies@programming.dev 2 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Yeah, who knows. When Biden stopped sending support for six months, Ukraine had it rough, they were backtracking (they still are one some fronts), lost Avdivka and other fronts. Germany announced they will halve the support, fascism in EU is also rising, which means less support. It's a battle of attrition and if enough support is withdrawn, it doesn't bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, if there is substantial support for years to come, Russia might have big problems. In any case, a bigger breakthrough on some front might make a huge difference and tip the special operation in one's favor.

[–] Ooops 10 points 4 months ago

Germany announced they will halve the support

No. While that is a popular narrative in media living of enragement bait and doom scrolling, Germany has announced nothing the like. They have a premilinary budget plan with a fixed 4 billion reserved for Ukraine, the exact same amount that was in the preliminary budget last year. That is with a higher budget for their military from which a lot of Ukraine support came directly and with Ukraine now getting 50 billion covered by the interests of Russian money frozen.

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