Who can say what might happen if Trump wins, but while a stalemate followed by a peace agreement where Ukraine still loses Crimea and etc seems possible, a complete military victory over all of Ukraine seems like pure fantasy. Y’all can prepare the Russian people for whatever you want, but if you can’t take the land, it’s not gonna help.

[–] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 31 points 4 months ago (1 children)

And the Russian army is facing the same problem that Germany and Napoleon faced in their invasion of Ukraine. When you gain territory, unfortunately you only end up with some bombed out towns in Ukraine.

Napoleon tried to blitz all the way to Moscow. He even took the city. But you just end up with a frozen wasteland. Ukraine is only valuable because of the people there. There's nothing else to take.

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 13 points 4 months ago (1 children)

False, its soil is incredibly fertile and their agricultural exports influence food prices across the globe.

That's beside the point though.

[–] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 10 points 4 months ago (1 children)

But you can't loot that. There's nothing that can be taken or enjoyed by a Russian oligarch. No one is excited about having a dacha in a Ukrainian wheat field.

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 9 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I did say it was beside the point. The invasion was an unforced error caused by the fact that Putin has surrounded himself with far right yes men. He's fucked himself, and he's dead if he admits it. His fear of color revolutions is slowly but surely being made into a self fulfilling prophecy. Stalin was a paranoid too, just Russia being Russia.

[–] lemmyvore@feddit.nl 1 points 4 months ago

I still wonder what would have happened if instead of declaring war to Ukraine he'd have continued to invade little Russian-friendly areas here and there around the Black Sea and Caspian. Probably nobody would have done absolutely anything.

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 14 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of his plan. If he conquers and stays, he will face a determined insurgency. If he installs a puppet and leaves, they will be quickly deposed. If he thinks to keep only part, he will have to keep fighting for it.

[–] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 points 4 months ago

An insurgency that's had years to store weapons and make plans instead of 3 days.

[–] Mihies@programming.dev 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Yeah, who knows. When Biden stopped sending support for six months, Ukraine had it rough, they were backtracking (they still are one some fronts), lost Avdivka and other fronts. Germany announced they will halve the support, fascism in EU is also rising, which means less support. It's a battle of attrition and if enough support is withdrawn, it doesn't bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, if there is substantial support for years to come, Russia might have big problems. In any case, a bigger breakthrough on some front might make a huge difference and tip the special operation in one's favor.

[–] Ooops 10 points 4 months ago

Germany announced they will halve the support

No. While that is a popular narrative in media living of enragement bait and doom scrolling, Germany has announced nothing the like. They have a premilinary budget plan with a fixed 4 billion reserved for Ukraine, the exact same amount that was in the preliminary budget last year. That is with a higher budget for their military from which a lot of Ukraine support came directly and with Ukraine now getting 50 billion covered by the interests of Russian money frozen.

[–] bradorsomething@ttrpg.network 10 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Biden was sneaking aid through while congress sat on its hands.

[–] Mihies@programming.dev 2 points 4 months ago

Yeah, minor stuff. I'm not saying Biden is at fault, it was clearly GOP. It merely happened during his time.