this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
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231
2024 Presidential Election Megapost! (lemmy.world)
submitted 2 weeks ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
460 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (4*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Maine (1*), Alaska (3), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6) called for Trump.

Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (1*), Maine (3*) for Harris.

2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.

Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.

Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.

https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 226 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.

AZ and NV both called for Trump, +11, +6

Which leaves 312 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19+11+6

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

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[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 11 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I've been thinking about this too.

I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.

For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.

Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.

Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.

Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.