this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2024
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Hurling ordure at the TREACLES, especially those closely related to LessWrong.
AI-Industrial-Complex grift is fine as long as it sufficiently relates to the AI doom from the TREACLES. (Though TechTakes may be more suitable.)
This is sneer club, not debate club. Unless it's amusing debate.
[Especially don't debate the race scientists, if any sneak in - we ban and delete them as unsuitable for the server.]
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Kurzweil has been right on tons of his predictions.
What a shitty, ignorant title.
@Varyk
Name ten.
Easy peasy:
Computers would beat humans at chess(happened in 1998)
Digital information explosion(The information on the internet rapidly becoming too much for the entire world to read)
Medicine becoming information technology(genomic, sequencing and crispr)
The inevitability of direct human computer interfacing (neuralink)
Life extension(cryonics/neuralink)
AI becoming a major industry(AI)
Computers built into eyeglasses(google glass)
Cpu processing speed explosion(Moore's law)
PCs would be able to answer questions wirelessly (search engines and the internet)
Exoskeletons render the disabled able (3d printable prosthetic limbs)
There are many, many more correct predictions by this guy
Some of Kurzweil's predictions in 1999 about 2009:
Some of Kurzweil's predictions in 1999 about 2019:
Also:
And:
And:
And:
And:
And:
And:
Kurzweil really is indistinguishable from a shitty phone psychic, including the followers who cherry pick “correct” predictions and interpret the incorrect ones so loosely they could mean anything (I’m waiting for some fucker to pop up and go “yeah duh Apple Vision Pro” in response to half of those, ignoring the inconvenient “works well and is popular” parts of the predictions)
The Nostradamus play.
if only he'd written in quatrains!
I'm picturing the VR dildo-suit from Upload.
You know he also did.
I've reread this sentence a few times now and I am just gobsmacked as to what it was intended to have meant. never dug into this particular espouser because from the moment I came across their name I smelled the kook, but I'm ~~not~~ now almost deathly curious to know exactly what the context of this particular prediction was (which near certainly was some shit riffed on from half a bit of statement of research people were looking into)
(e: whoops hella-freudian typo)
Jesus, Ray, phrasing
To be fair, those words were written around the End Of History, when fascism was known to be safely extinct and nobody in their right mind would have assumed that such a phrase referred to it.
Francis should not have, in fact, lightened up
if you have budget for that, against an enemy that doesn't
"Humans are generally far removed from the scene of battle" (if you don't count the people that the drones are blowing up)
To be fair, this can be made true by the simple expedient of redefining who counts as “human”
Something about redefining a person as a shield based on how much of their body absorbs the blast. Below that threshold they contain the property of the US military and are considered potential recycling recepticles.
yeah, and it's been like this since brits used freshly invented heavy machine guns in their colonial wars. machines killing machines is just what will cause army bean counters to burn at stake operators of these machines
If only there was any large active warzone that has largely devolved into positional warfare for two years now to disprove that claim, damn.
Damn, if only.
Drones mostly target humans and crewed vehicles, not other drones (and disable rapidly and suddenly un-crewed vehicles) (with rare exceptions of recon drones crashing other recon drones by breaking their propellers and like 1 or 2 cases of FPV drones shooting down fixed wing recon drones. anti-drone warfare is mostly EW, then AAA and things like MANPADS or even bigger missiles depending on how valuable that drone is as a target)
Besides, last time i've checked it was not drones that took or retook Vovchansk (80% ish Ukrainian controlled last week), it was tanks, arty, mechanized infantry, maybe a dash of CAS and loads of AA and jammers, you know, just like in every war since 80s or even bit earlier. Loads of small cheap PGMs do work great in anti-vehicle role, and drones are just that, so it makes everybody hide fair bit harder
if i have to guess, the thing that prevents mobility now is constant surveillance, also by drones + lots of artillery, and some attack drones too. the thing that will enable large scale movements will be air dominance and even more EW
You also need an extremely well ran, integrated, well-trained, well-supplied army to run modern system warfare. Russia's army is hardly modernised, and I suspect they wouldn't be really willing to run a command model that gives a lot of authority to the lower ranks.
yeah if you want to have so different pieces working together, you need training that makes exploitation of it all possible, goes without saying
well, it's not there yet https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tou8ahLZvP4
I dunno about roads but the stoplights are intelligent and they hate bicyclists with their entire robot souls. I have been trapped and tormented in a left-turning lane by an evil robot demi-god that would never let the left-turn signal turn green. Harrowing.
???????
“In the future, there will be brain-generated music”, said Ray Kay, to a young disciple.
“But Master Ray, isn’t music generally brain generated?”, the disciple asked.
“No, you fucking idiot. You fucking buffoon. How dare you question me,” replied Ray. It was then that the disciple reached enlightenment.
my response to ray involves making music with an entirely different organ
Neuralink
VRChat
Algoraves
Obamacare
Asimo
You are dumb
Thanks!
Buh bye now.
you might not be tall enough for this ride