swlabr
spoiler
Given the lack of edge cases, I feel the latter possibility is strong. I'm just glad it was easy!
FWIW, I read this somewhat charitably: I didn't read this article as "I want there to be prediction markets in journalism" as much as "The right-wing fuckos are very into this shit, so expect for it to froth up out of the sewers in 2025." That being said, as discussed elsewhere, many of the finer points are questionable.
N.B: I am not aware of Lorenz's shit opinions.
Techbros: “I’m hungry for that Lab Grown Meat!”
Labs:
It's probably worth 14B in the way a fire that you feed 14B of cash into is worth 14B
Day 13, day 13 of shirking other responsibilities.
p1
Ok. So, I overthought this a little. Ultimately, this problem boils down to solving a system of 2 linear equations aka inverting a matrix.
Of course, anyone who has done undergraduate linear algebra knows to look to the determinant in case some shit goes down. For the general problem space, a zero determinant means that one equation is just a multiple of the other. A solution could still exist in this case. Consider:
a => x+1, y+1
b => x+2, y+2
x = 4, y = 4 (answer: 2 tokens)
The following has no solution:
a => x+2, y+2
b => x+4, y+4
x = 3, y = 3
I thought of all this, and instead of coding the solution, I just checked if any such cases were in my input. There weren't, and I was home free.
p2
No real changes to the solution to p1 aside from the new targets. I wasn't sure if 64 bit ints were big enough to fit the numbers so I changed my code to use big ints.
I'm looking at my code again and I'm pretty sure that was all unnecessary.
Oh yeah, haha. I often face the dilemma dilemma in which I have to choose between ignoring the 'incorrect" usage (i.e. not a choice between two things that are difficult to choose between) and seethe OR mention the correct usage and look like a pedant. Sometimes it's a trilemma, and I'm all over the shop. But more seriously, I usually let it slide and let people use it to mean "a situation".
I doubt that Lorenz has a dilemma in line with the correct usage. I couldn't fight the urge to steelman, spoilered below, which I suspect this is nothing near what Lorenz had in mind.
exhausting Steelman within. I only tried to come up with something, it's not a good steelman. I'm so sorry about this.
In the world that Lorenz posits, where prediction markets somehow represent accurate news reporting, either a journalist participates in the market whilst reporting news (conflict of interest), or they don't, and they are bad at their job (and not performing at your job is unethical, I guess?)
sorry, what exactly is the dilemma here? how is it an ethical dilemma to have an unethical way to make money?
I'm guessing what's being said is that in this fictional scenario with an ethically neutral prediction market, you could do insider trading but with fake news? Like, you predict that they will find cheese on the moon, and then you make a story about cheese on the moon.
Either way, it is a moot point since prediction markets are bunk, ethically or otherwise.
Nah my neighbour, Steve Tesla. He’s real smart. Found a way to get free cable
This is great. The “diaspora” framing makes me want there to be an NPR style public interest story about all this. The emotional core would be about trying to find a place to belong and being betrayed by the people you thought could be your friends, or something.
It’s my pleasure!
That’s the power of not saying anything interesting, you can’t contradict it
Abstracted abstract:
Frontier models are increasingly trained and deployed as autonomous agents, which significantly increases their potential for risks. One particular safety concern is that AI agents might covertly pursue misaligned goals, hiding their true capabilities and objectives – also known as scheming. We study whether models have the capability to scheme in pursuit of a goal that we provide in-context and instruct the model to strongly follow. We evaluate frontier models on a suite of six agentic evaluations where models are instructed to pursue goals and are placed in environments that incentivize scheming.
I saw this posted here a moment ago and reported it*, and it looks to have been purged. I am reposting it to allow us to sneer at it.
*
The video game in question:
