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What that looks like is Germany losing more of its energy-intensive manufacturing and exports sliding as unsettled companies rein in domestic investment. As living standards erode, voters cast around for someone to blame, and the social tensions drive away the foreign talent the country desperately needs. The toxic cocktail of caution and resentment would then ripple out across Europe.

“Everyone’s life, little by little, gets a little bit worse for the rest of their existence,” said Webb.

Years of poor decisions and some bad luck have shattered Germany’s economic model just when the rest of Europe needs its industrial muscle to help the region keep pace with China, deal with Russia’s war in Ukraine and respond to an increasingly isolationist US. Instead, Germany is facing its biggest crisis since reunification.

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