It's a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I'm hearing.
this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the 'culture war'.
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
We will either get Fascism or Fascism Liteβ’
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