But still no getting rid of the EC or passing RCV by incumbents.
this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2024
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Abolish the Electoral Collage.
That ain’t gonna happen.
That said, we can make it irrelevant with The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It’s 77% the way there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
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Or Electoral College even.
I would like to see what an Electoral Collage looks like.
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Just a reminder to not be complacent.
Here's hoping Trump pulls a Biden tomorrow.
Or a James Earl Jones. I'm not picky.
Too soon.
For once, it might actually be too soon.
Sad about JEJ. But maybe a rule of 3s that takes out Trump wouldn't be the worst outcome.
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The problem was that Biden was actually trying to say something complicated and he got tripped up. Trump has always spoken at a kindergarten level because he knows he has nothing to say.
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Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information? This is by far the highest number I've seen for Trump so far.
Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information?
Well, he did predict Clinton would win in 2016 so there's that.
He's quite a well known pollster. Up until recently he was responsible for Five Thirty Eight, but it got sold and he left.
He got the 2016 election wrong (71 Hilary, 28 trump) He got the 2020 election right (89 Biden, 10 Trump)
Right and wrong are the incorrect terms here, but you get what I mean.
He didn’t get it wrong. He said the Clinton Trump election was a tight horse race, and Trump had one side of a four sided die.
The state by state data wasn’t far off.
Problem is, people don’t understand statistics.
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He works for Peter Theil now, so I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt.
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Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.
He's just a guy analizing the polls. The source is Fox News. He mentions in the article that tomorrow's debate could make that poll not matter.
Should you trust Nate or polls? They're fun but... Who is answering these polls? Who wants to answer them before even October?
So yeah take it seriously that a poll found that a lot of support for Trump exists. But it's just a moment of time for whoever they polled. Tomorrow's response will be a much better indication of any momentum.
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Ignore headlines
JUST VOTE
~~His older model at~~ 538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/
Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.
Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election
Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.
TIL. I thought they forked it. I didn’t realize 538’s was all new.
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I hate my country
Important to note, these forecasts are absolutely subject to change. This is not Nostradamus. It is merely reading the polls and factors as they stand. If Harris obliterates Trump tomorrow then this flips. If everyone donates enough money this week and the DNC gets more ground network for their get out the vote efforts, then this flips
All the model guys are very clear about this.
What's driving this current Trump run in the models is the lack of a convention bump for Harris. Models automatically tune a candidate's chances down by about 10 percent after their convention because it's usually a bit of a honeymoon period. It's been pointed out though that she may have had her honeymoon period after taking over from Biden. In which case the odds are more like 46/54.
The takeaway from this is that this election is incredibly close right now. Even at 36/64 it is very close. Both candidates need to run near perfect campaigns to have a chance of winning.
What the fuck? How can this "race" even be close? How brain-dead emotional are the voters? There are two candidates, you choose the person who's ideals and directions you believe in? How is the election process surprisingly similar to an ADHD kindegarten with a nominated side whose campaign is metaphorical shit slinging??
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Nate silver also predicted Hillary would win against Trump.
He predicted she had 70% chance to win. He didn't predict her to win.
So... About the same as this
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