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"Guess we'll just keep capturing territory until a fair deal is a reality, then."
this post was submitted on 22 Aug 2024
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Tbf, he seems to primarily be saying that Crimea might not be returned (possible) and that reparations won't be paid (almost certain).
I can't imagine Ukraine letting Russia keep Crimea, but I also can't imagine Putin letting it go.
I can’t imagine Russia successfully holding on to Crimea in the long term, especially once that bridge gets taken out. And I’m pretty sure it’s gonna get taken out.
It's very glib but true, that all wars are essentially a failure of imagination.
I'm actually going to say that Putin had a little too much imagination when he decided to play Napoleon in the information age.
Thanks, do I still need to read it?
The Crimea thing is the sort of thing Zelensky is talking about when he says the West doesn't want too much victory. It's not that enough leverage to grab Crimea is impossible, but it would be politically catastrophic in Russia, which might mean civil war in a nuclear power bordering Europe, and so the West doesn't really want it to be possible.
I really can't see a possibility where there's both enough of a Russian government to pay reparations AND one that would be willing to, though. Rebuilding Ukraine is probably going to be the West's long and expensive project. Oh well, that's the cost of living on planet Earth where shit hits the fan sometimes.
It's pretty short, there's not much else to it. Czech President Petr Pavel is a very realistically-minded military man and a very strong supporter of Ukraine, so he's probably just voicing what he sees as likely.
The Crimea thing is the sort of thing Zelensky is talking about when he says the West doesn’t want too much victory. It’s not that enough leverage to grab Crimea is impossible, but it would be politically catastrophic in Russia, which might mean civil war in a nuclear power bordering Europe, and so the West doesn’t really want it to be possible.
Crimea, I think, is still a possibility (and one which the US has voiced support of), but if Crimea is retaken, it will definitely need to be an entire undertaking after Russia's presence in the rest of Ukraine is entirely broken, not simply as fait accompli when the Russians are kicked out.
Letting Russia keep Crimea means they will keep fucking with Ukraine and their exports from the Azov sea. Also it means a festering open wound of hostility between the 2 countries. Also If Russia would enforce a peace in whatever way, if Ukraine says no.. it will just keep raining drones, just ask Israël and the Palestinians what it means to have a really shitty neighbor.
...as long as Putin has enough poor and/or ignorant to sacrifice.