MeanwhileOnGrad
"Oh, this is calamity! Calamity! Oh no, he's on the floor!"
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Meanwhile On Grad
Documenting hate speech, conspiracy theories, apologia/revisionism, and general tankie behaviour across the fediverse. Memes are welcome!
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Basic Rules:
Sh.itjust.works Instance rules apply! If you are from other instances, please be mindful of the rules. — Basically, don't be a dick.
Hate-Speech — You should be familiar with this one already; practically all instances have the same rules on hate speech.
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You'll be warned if you're violating the instance and community rules. Continuing poor behaviour after being warned will result in a ban or removal of your comments. Bans typically only last 24 hours, but each subsequent infraction will double the amount. Depending on the content, the ban time may be increased. You may request an unban at any time.
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What do you think started, and kept WWI going, narrative. Every party believed or was sold that they could win this thing if they just kept climbing the escalation ladder. With the result that an entire generation of boys and men was gone for basically nothing.
For a start I would not do X, Y and Z, this is the whole idea of realism, accept the world as is. Threats work, I'm sorry. If your response is to call the police, there is no police in the world of international politics, you have to play the hand you're dealt.
And in the case of Ukraine this was sadly a very bad hand, that is why I don't blame Ukraine for much. You could of course blame Ukraine for being lured by the power of the US, and that they could thus safely ignore dire warnings from Russia. But as they say, with great power comes great responsibility, so I choose to put the blame at the hands of Russia and the US.
I mean… not really. Surely, at the time, the “dangerous” narrative was anything against the war. To me, allowing a freer flow of ideas would have helped to resolve the war sooner, and deciding that certain narratives were dangerous and should be stayed away from (leading to difficulty in understanding what was happening) was a factor that made things worse, not better. No?
I am glad that you are not involved in the foreign policy of either Ukraine or any country I care about. There is realism, sure; the world is not always a comic book where being righteous is enough. Then, also, there is cowardice, and then beyond that there is saying that someone else who is rejecting cowardice is to be blamed (along with anyone who gives them assistance in standing up) for danger they find themselves in as a result.
Ukraine seems likely to be able to hold on to a significant chunk of their territory and self determination, after deciding to pay a heavy heavy price for it, in homes and cities and money and lives and anything else. You can take your condescending stuff about realism and whose decision that was, and what kind of lives under Russian rule they should be resigning themselves to instead, and shove it up your ass.
You seem to conflate questioning a narrative with banning a narrative, I have the intent nor the means. I value being able to have an open discussion on topics as important as war, especially based on substance rather than resorting to personal insults and such.
that line of reasoning essentially makes every single US invasion ok. and every single oppression okay. Because threats work and fuck you for being weaker.
Accepting how the world works is not the same as saying it’s moral.
If someone threatens to shoot you, you saying it’s immoral is not a practical defense, unless there is some kind of higher power like a justice system with a police to enforce it. But the entire point of international politics is that such a force does not exist, just countries with interests.
I mean the evidence exists that NATO is a substantially higher power here
Also, as I said, there’s a huge difference between “I know it’s not an ideal outcome but I’m scared and want to save my skin” - I won’t say someone’s always wrong for saying that, by any means - and saying to someone else who’s fighting and suffering to defend themselves “I know it’s not an ideal outcome but you should be scared, and accept it to save your skin.” It’s like cowardice by proxy. Especially while they’re winning.
NATO is still a collection of nation states with interests, being powerful does not mean you can be trusted. (As the US has shown multiple times)
The people actually fighting this war, don’t want to, they need to be forcibly conscripted by the Ukrainian government, I have met multiple people that can no longer renew their pasport because the Ukrainian government (and western governments by extension) want them to die at the front.
And finally Ukraine is losing, and probably always was, the economic and manpower difference is just too big. There was a point in the summer of 2022 where Ukraine had a position to get a deal on relatively good terms, and there actually was a peace process going on. But somehow this broke down, I’ve heard rumors that it was the UK or the US that convinced/coerced Zelensky to walk away. I really hope that isn’t true because that would mean they have a lot of blood on their hands, and mostly Ukrainian.
The plot thickens
Ukrainians I know do not agree with your assessment of blame, to put it mildly
Which direction is the front line moving over the course of the last year? I am curious what your picture is of the reality on the ground. Before the US aid package came through, it was 100% fair to say Ukraine was losing or on the verge of starting to lose, but now is very different on any time scale you could select. In my reality at least. Why do you say they are losing?
Follow up question, where do you get your information? From media (which?), from Lemmy, where?
https://www.ft.com/content/d7e95021-df99-4e99-8105-5a8c3eb8d4ef
https://youtu.be/slkn2-N3oR0?si=d9Z_4KEvKS5kYXjp
If you read between the lines of ft articles it becomes quite clear that the manpower problem is almost insurmountable, but there are also other articles from nyt or Dutch or German mainstream media that try to package it positively but can not hide the underlying problems. And then there is John Mearsheimer who gives a higher level overview, that to me sketches quite a clear picture of Ukraines prospects.
Plus I like to listen to “war nerd radio” podcast. It’s not a news source perse, but they discuss the Ukraine war sometimes and they seem to be better at predicting what is to come than most news papers. For example they were rightfully quite skeptical about the great summer offensive of 2023 whereas other sources were promising the conquest of Crimea.
Holy shit holy shit
Is that Gary Brechner? I had no idea he was even still around, if it is; I liked him quite a lot, like a million years ago
You are citing people I generally agree with, but I do not agree with what Mearsheimer is saying here. You're also pointedly ignoring my question about how the front line is moving.
Just to take what I think of Mearsheimer's points in lightning round:
IDK man. I'm not convinced. Want to answer the question about movement of the front line? And is this stuff in answer to my question about where you get your information? These people are generally pretty highly qualified people in my view, yes.
Yeah that sounds pretty accurate from what I remember of Brechner. Just like Mearsheimer he has a record of having been accurate about the future, in retrospect, which is a pretty fuckin difficult thing to do.
Yes those are my sources and yes it is Gary Brechner aka the war nerd, he is sadly getting old but I really enjoyed his recent series on the us civil war.
I didn’t answer because I don’t know. I have heard it theorized that Russia is depleting the Ukrainian forces and building up behind the lines for a summer offensive, but also that the recent reshuffle of the Russian Security Council means that Putin expects the war to last until at least 2025. It is mostly speculation so not really a value add.
On all the details, I am just like most people dealing with limited information. And it’s hard to get a good idea what’s happening on the frontlines and on the broader strategic battle field. But there are sources I trust and sources that have shown to be at best incompetent and at worse straight up propaganda. This might be one of those rare morally uncomplicated wars, but the fact that the loudest voices in support of Israel are also oft the loudest voices in support of further escalations with Russia makes me skeptical.
Eh
Yeah just like the US depleted those Vietnamese forces so effectively for so long and that was the key to their victory
But surely it is possible to see which direction they are moving, or not moving, on a scale of hundreds of km over years, no? I mean you're not obligated to actually follow through on the answer, but I think you can see what I'm getting at .
...
Dude now you're just saying talking points.
People on Lemmy like both Palestine and Ukraine because both of them got attacked by oppressive neighbors for basically no reason. The US State Department's position on the two is wildly inconsistent, but the position of most human people (or most people I interact with online at least) is not.
"Further escalations with Russia." One, the State Dept is actually being very careful about laying down rules for use of US arms to try to avoid escalation. I suspect that most of what you mean about escalation is "no fair fighting back!" Two, if Russia doesn't want to get escalated against they can get the fuck out of the country and stop killing people. This crying about how everyone is being mean to them and it's really dangerous and everyone better stop it, right now, because it's escalation, while they are still doing their side of the fighting uninterrupted on someone else's sovereign territory, is a bunch of shit.
Upset about the results of the peace talks? Pack your shit, get back across the border. Go home. There you go, peace.
Want no escalation? Pack your shit, get back across the border. I suspect all your oil refineries and airbases and radar stations will suddenly stop blowing up without warning which you think is so improper. Etc, etc, and so on.
Sorry to be rude about it again. But hey! At least I didn't come to your country and blow up your apartment building and kill a bunch of your friends and family.
It doesn’t matter where the frontline goes in a war of attrition, it matters what resources you have. This is why Ukraine is loosing, it has a manpower problem, the only resources the west can not help with.
Ukraine is not North Vietnam. I’m sorry to repeat myself but Ukraine has a man power problem, people don’t want to die for this cause. If anything, they more resemble South Vietnam, and we all know how that ended.
Sure it’s a talking point, but it’s also true. Seeing Ursula von der Leyen advocate for war crimes in Gaza with the same vigor as supporting escalation in Ukraine makes me skeptical of her motives. Same goes for Blinken crying about Ukrainian civilian casualties and saying dead children are the price of war about Palestinians, kinda makes you wonder. And they make the decisions, not random guys and gals on Lemmy.
I’m not Russian, I have no power over what they do. Peace is complicated, and requires living with injustice, but in return you spare a lot of suffering from happening.
I mean I can rude as well. If you think this conflict is truly worth dying for, then go there, and go die.