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this post was submitted on 26 Nov 2024
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Which will only happen if we have WW3. Let's be honest.
Russia isn't starting WW3, because there's literally no possible way for them to survive doing that.
They can't even beat Ukraine in a straight fight, and they know it. They are woefully ill equipped to take on all of NATO.
No matter how much damage they could potentially do if they tried, the ending is guaranteed; Russia and its current leadership do not exist.
The Russian leadership are vain, greedy, and power hungry, and the thing about those traits is they make you very, very averse to personal risk. They're not going to take any action that puts them in the firing line.
I'm actually pretty doubtful that Russia still has much of a nuclear capacity. Maintaining a nuclear arsenal is very expensive, and the Russian oligarchs have been embezzling massive amounts of money from the military.
They've had to resort to asking NK for help, so I don't think they have a good chance of winning the current conflict, much less an actual NATO power.
The trouble with that is that the Soviets had such a large arsenal that even if only a vanishingly small fraction of it still works, it's still ruining someone's day. An ICBM with a dodgy guidance system or leaky fuel tank still hits a populated area even if it misses a city. An H-bomb that misfires is still an A-bomb, and an A-bomb that misfires is still a dirty bomb. It's plausible that NATO could win a nuclear war against Russia without even firing back just from Russia embarrassing itself and giving an excuse for a conventional war they'd also lose, but that's a huge gamble that no one wants to make, especially when winning is still worse than the status quo.
It takes 26 minutes and 40 seconds for a ballistic missile to get from a launchpad in Russia to the East Coast of the United States.
How long does it take to get the missile, payload, and fuel to the launchpad?
Cool story
Cool then you don't have too much time to worry.
So the options are WW3 or cede Ukraine to Russia.