this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
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I don't get it. There haven't been any surprises yet.
Pretty much every state is following as expected. Its going to be super close and come down to PA, MI, and WI.
I'm losing my ability to give a fuck at this point. Everything short of large scale civil unrest or political revolution is basically business as usual. Whatever happens I'm sure we'll fucking deserve it.
If you're looking at which states have been called then there may not be any surprises, but things like the NYT needle are following trends in states which are yet to be called.
Republican counties, with their fewer number of citizens, always report first. Rural areas are easier to count. Democrat counties, which tend to be urban, have far larger numbers and report later.
The trend doesn't matter on election day. Republicans always get the first wave, then Democrats catch up later. The question is how many urban areas are remaining in each state?
Answer: Lots for VA and NC. That's why AP hasn't called. Ignore the websites or newspapers that try to give you truth before the urban centers (with massive populations) dramatically shift the vote around.
the problem is trump is over performing in those counties relative to 2020.
The NYT needle for the popular vote is currently leaning toward Trump, what the fuck is going on? lol
https://i.imgur.com/n7IYQxh.png
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132409
This clip talks through the swings towards Trump in a bunch of demographics. It's just bizarre.
For example college educated women have swung towards trump. What the fuck.
So, so, so much of this is the Israel/palestine issue. I cannot imagine it’s different. Especially when you talk about younger people and college educated voters.
But it’s not just because people care about it. It’s that it was a massive, opportunistic wedge issue that people looking to depress turnout used to bolster trumps chances. I’m not going to say who those people were that wanted to see this change, but the amount of people I’ve seen talking about it online, the amount of people I’ve talked to in person who just didn’t vote and cited the genocide…there’s no doubt in my mind it was Kamala’s silence until literally yesterday about “doing everything in her power to end the war in Gaza” that really put the nail in the coffin for her. And even that is light language (the day before Election Day, no less) when discussing genocide. But you see, those of us who care about it had this button purposefully pressed for us in order to hurt Kamala’s chances. Even when I’m describing that situation, I have a hard time not framing it as the legitimate issue it is. Because it’s a massive issue. A fuckin holocaust is happening before our eyes.
But things are about to get much, much worse for those people. Because the internet stoked the (very legitimate) feelings of anger. It’s not a solution to blow the entire situation up so you can say “well I didn’t vote for genocide.” It’s happening. And it’s about to get so much worse.
California hasn't been counted yet.
it's more of a panic over county margins compared to 2020 that they're showing on TV.