385
North Korean troops set to join Russian army as Pyongyang ‘fully enters’ war
(www.telegraph.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2024
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If the invasion of Ukraine hasn't taught everyone that the only way to not get invaded is to have nukes I don't know what will.
Seriously - I’m genuinely baffled at the complete geopolitical ineptitude that occurred in 2014. It was a categorical abrogation of the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty in exchange for their surrender of old Soviet nukes based in their territory.
Nobody is going to make a deal like that going forward. The nuclear non-proliferation movement is entirely dead. Nukes are, categorically, the absolute final word in guaranteeing a country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. There is no substitute. Genuinely, the complete and total lack of meaningful action in the defense of Ukraine was the most apocalyptically stupid geopolitical move that Obama and Merkel made during their stints as leaders of the western world.
Yup. Going to hell in a hand basket.
I hate that you're right.
Nah, it was second behind the invasion of Iraq and the forever war in Afghanistan. The US's unwillingness to react was in large part because it had been weakened by a decade of idiotic wars in the Middle East. Europe has no excuse though.
We invaded Iraq ~5 years before Obama was elected....
Honestly, no it's also done the opposite. Ukraine has passed so many of Russia's "red lines" that it shows nukes are useless too. The only time a nuke is useful is when you've already lost. If you use one then you get a lot of other groups attacking you, and potentially you get nuked yourself. You can't actually really use one in defence.
The only way to not be invaded is to be stronger than your potential opponents. Si vis pacem, para bellum. (If you want peace, prepare for war.)
It hasn't done the opposite. It has slowed response from the US and other countries significantly. For some things the US still doesn't want to give Ukraine permission. Sure, Poland was giving tanks almost immediately after the war started, showing the hole in logic. But a lot of other countries went for "non leathal aid" like body armor, helmets. They only sent more after a year or so. Truth is, if Russians got Kiev and got Ukraine to capitulate after like 6 months, they'd only gain on the landgrab, with no consequences other than sanctions (which we see how they don't really have the impact they should have and are skirted constantly). Decade or two in the future? Relations would probably be strained still, but returning to normal.
Appeasement is sadly the way of the world. That's why Hitler, Stalin and now Putin were so successful.
Russia has some odd game theory incentives because their nukes probably haven't been well maintained. Now, the rest of the world has to assume they work. The consequences of being wrong about that are too great. However, if Russia actually launched a nuke and it fizzles, that's a pretty good indication that their nukes don't work in general. It's therefore in Russia's best interest to keep pretending that it will launch a nuke, but never do it because that would remove all doubt.
And then they're fucked. With the nuclear taboo broken--fizzle or not--nobody will complain when NATO gets directly involved in conventional ways.
good point. Loading up ukraine with nukes would have created a serious problem for russia. The problem is it would have given Ukraine independence from the US as well.