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Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished
(www.independent.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024
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I think she’s got a fair chance of winning FLA, but if she does, it means she’s already won most of the swing states, so there’s not much point in investing the massive amount of cash it would take to win. But, like Iowa and Alaska, the fact that it’s this close is a very encouraging sign.
Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She's not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.
She's improved her postilion in FL. She's not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now "break even".
Plus it needs to be a massive number to overcome the, "This was clearly altered we are not certifying send it to the supreme court"
Less because that would stop a refusal to certify, and more because it might be able to kick the Republican SC members into choosing to not hand it to the GoP in fear of retalitation
Can't remove them from the court. CAN shoot them
We need the swing state victories to be out of the range of recount, and not GA. GA is automatic smoke bomb/ recount. Write that one off.
So you need AZ at greater than a half point. You are trusting your election board in NC. PA is also half a point.
And yeah you've got the crux of it. We need two+ to keep it out of the hands of the SC.
? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%
Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
Guys. Polls don't predict the winner. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/12/obama-poll-blow-romney-florida
You can go check the exact sources. I think Kamala is down in FL -2, -3? Depends on your source and poll aggregator. Biden was up ~+3 ~+4. Final result was -4? So call it a 6-7 point structural bias. Doesn't diminish my point.
Yeah thats just self delusion. You clearly have a specific confirmation bias your working to attend to. You shouldn't delude yourself and others because reality is difficult and shitty. We only hurt yourself when we live in fantasy.
Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would've thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It's not limited to 2012 either
Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn't fully knowable until only after the election happens
Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.
I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren't better off living in a state of self delusion.
An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn't declare anything about it's direction or even that it couldn't be the same as it was earlier
This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/
I'm just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don't have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn't change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you've created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the "happy chemicals" for a very long time.
That's not how that works. It's entirely possible she wins Florida and loses Michigan for example.
Not my first rodeo. The probability of her winning the blue wall is greater than winning Florida. She does that and she wins the Presidency. Her efforts must remain there. If they roll, there is a chance Florida will flip too.
That's a fair way to put it.
It's highly improbable though. If she flips Florida, a state she's down in despite the headline, she most likely won Michigan by a wide margin.
It's possible, but like pigs learning to fly possible.
Florida and Michigan are not connected at anything but the national level. They have completely different local and regional constituencies. You cannot compare states on opposite sides of the US like that.
Bullshit.
Hell they are in the same time zone, it's just a straight shot down i75. What's this opposite side of the country crap?
They are different, but a swing that big to the left in Florida is almost impossible without a national swing of serious size, thus Michigan which leans left already would be in the bag.
And California is a straight shot down the 40 from North Carolina. Surely you're not suggesting they have the same culture and constituencies?
National swing is one way to do it. And it needs to be big because you're activating a few people in every state. If you concentrate on a state you might hardly move the national needle but you could seriously swing the state.
Now add in other stake holders like the abortion rights movement and the fuck DeSantis movement and you've got ways the vote can change with the national candidate doing absolutely nothing. Of note both of those are going to do nothing in Michigan, while Michigan's uncommitted movement isn't going to bother Florida at all.
So no, not bullshit. I don't know who told you the only possible way to change minds was at the national level but they were very wrong and now you're very wrong.