this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2024
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[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Uh, there are several recent polls that have Biden ahead, while Democrats have been over-performing polls by about 9 points in recent elections.

It's become so noticable that US News did an article about it.

[–] istanbullu@lemmy.ml 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

538 has been reliable in the past elections. They show an almost-tied race with Trump slightly ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[–] ShunkW@lemmy.world -1 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Wasn't 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?

[–] Skepticpunk@lemmy.world 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.

[–] cbarrick@lemmy.world 1 points 4 months ago

Everyone was wrong in 2016.

538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.

And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.