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Definitely a real possibility, but tight in the senate
The senate is likely to come down to: can Dems either maintain John Tester in Montana or flip Florida or Texas
There's also the funky possibility that Dan Osborn wins as an independent in Nebraska and overturns a deep red seat. Limited polls put him neck and neck. There's no dem in that race and Osborn has distanced himself from all parties. He said he'd likely try not to caucus with anyone, but if it didn't work out he'd caucus with whoever aligns better with his goals. He's very pro-union (he lead Kellog's strike in 2021), pro-right to repair, pro-legal weed, against corporate ballouts, against a national abortion ban, but appears a bit more conservative on immigration, so make of that what you will