this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2024
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Well, on overcast days most solar panels these days still produce up to 25% of their normal output. Nothing to sniff at I'd think. Perhaps not enough, but certainly not nothing.
I think you may be a tad pessimistic here. Consider Europe, even during a Dunkelflaute not the entire continent is without renewables, only a region of it. If northern Europe has one, southern Europe is very, very unlikely to have one as well for example. And inter-continental power lines aren't as rare as you might think! I believe the UK is currently building one to Morocco, and there's plans to build one via Greece and Cyprus to the Middle-East.
I don't fully agree here. Certainly on a more household level battery storage is already perfectly feasible and being installed a lot these days. The growth of this sector is also staggeringly high. Year-on-year the sector nearly doubles, as costs are coming down quite quickly and the economic picture starts to maie more and more sense. We don't produce enough now, but in 10 years that picture might be radically different.
Experience learns that new nuclear reactors take 15 to 20 years to build, from planning to end of construction. If the focus is on nuclear, any CO2 savings will likely come too late. And then there's still the economic problem of nuclear being far too expensive compared to solar/wind. Barely any investor is willing to touch it unless the government super-heavily subsidises it, resulting in expensive power and higher taxes (e.g. what happened in France). And then there's the issue that we don't have enough expertise and rare materials to build enough reactors to cover enough of the world's production. We have a hard enough time building just a couple reactors, let alone thousands. And having poorer 3rd world countries finance their own reactors also seems unlikely.
I believe I saw research that suggested the fastest route to net zero, whilst still being affordable and feasible without emitting too much CO2 in the meantime was a very heavy push for renewables, investments into energy infrastructure (which are mostly required regardless of the route taken) and research into battery tech so that in 25-30 years we may have enough storage to ditch the last fossil fuel plants. In the meantime keeping gas power plants open seemed the least polluting backup method in case of power generation dips, plus potentially shutting off heavy industry during those periods to save power (fairly cheap, requires little investment to do). Nuclear doesn't have to disappear, but the cost-benefit analysis just didn't tilt in its favour. But it might make sense on a more local level perhaps, that's always an issue with those super macro-economic studies.
I was hoping to find it but I'm having a hard time doing so. If I find it I'll link it to you, it was an interesting read.
Sounds like a reasonable approach, at least if batteries keep improving and getting more cheaper as they did in the past. Working on things that work right now, like modern nuclear, seems like a reasonable addition.
When comparing cost of nuclear vs. wind or solar, it is very easy to get to smaller numbers. But then you have no storage and no massive infrastructure, which means solar and wind can not work. Omitting these costs is a nice way to make it more palatable, but not an honest approach when comparing different technologies.