this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
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[–] ryven@lemmy.dbzer0.com 42 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Did he? My recollection is that he gave her a 70% chance of winning, which is not at all the same as predicting that she will win.

[–] candybrie@lemmy.world 27 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Yup. 70% Clinton, 30% Trump. With points where it was about 50-50. They even had a 1 in 10 shot of Clinton winning the popular vote and Trump winning the election, which was higher than their chances of a Clinton blowout (6%).

[–] CoggyMcFee@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago

And at the time he went out of his way to emphasize that, when something has a roughly 1/3 chance of occurring, not only is it possible, but you actually expect it to happen in 1 of 3 times. His prediction was the main reason that I was not feeling comfortable about Hillary just winning.

[–] GaMEChld@lemmy.world 17 points 1 month ago

I think Nate made a good point about people not understanding polls. 70% chance to win means Hillary would have won 70/100 elections, not win by 70-30. But many read 70% as some kind of guarantee.