0x815

The Czech secret service has blamed Russia for a series of bomb threats against schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, placing more pressure on already strained ties between Prague and Moscow.

Hundreds of Czech and Slovak schools were forced to close for several days in early September due to unprecedented bomb threats via email, according to local media. Nothing came of the threats and no evidence of explosives was found near the schools.

The head of the Czech Republic's secret service, Michal Koudelka, warned the country's parliament on Monday about cyber attacks against Czech entities.

"For example, the threatening emails in September about the placement of explosives targeting a number of schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, behind which there is also a clearly visible Russian trace," Koudelka said.

"We are witnessing a kind of globalisation of evil, where the countries of the axis of evil — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — support, complement and help each other achieve their goals. We are therefore witnessing a phenomenon that is very serious and dangerous," he added. Related

• Chinese immigrants in America are offering their living rooms and garages as warehouses to cross-border sellers on Temu, TikTok, and Amazon.
• The mini fulfillment centers help deliver orders, examine returns, and sell excess inventory to local stores.
• The U.S. government’s “de minimis” crackdown may pressure more Chinese sellers and platforms to work with warehouses in America.

As demand for warehouses soars, many cross-border sellers are finding it more cost-effective to store their goods in the U.S. This shift is driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce platforms like Temu, Shein, and TikTok, which have made it easier for small Chinese manufacturers to tap into the American market.

On Chinese social media platforms Xiaohongshu and Douyin, dozens of accounts are advertising so-called “family warehouses,” located in cities including Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and Austin. They offer fulfillment service, which means shipping out packages whenever orders are placed. They also discard excess inventory and returns. Some help re-label Amazon products when the corresponding listings or accounts get blocked, so the goods can be shipped back to Amazon warehouses under new listings.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4898387

While international donors and foreign investors were wary of investing in Tajikistan, Chinese companies have been willing to navigate Tajikistan's complicated political web.

An exiled Tajik opposition member who spoke to Global Voices on conditions of anonymity said that in order to do business in Tajikistan, anyone, be it a foreign or local company or businessman, needs to have some sort of “roof,” i.e. patronage from local or state officials in order to secure business. And this kind of protection is often remunerated by payments or bribes.

[...]

Beginning in 2012, Tajikistan leased around 18,000 hectares of its land to China for cotton, rice, grain, and corn cultivation for a 49-year contract. The agreement was part of a broader initiative to strengthen economic ties between the two countries.

The main problem with this agreement is that its terms and conditions have not been disclosed. It is not clear what — if any — systems have been implemented regarding inspecting and regulating the lands leased by Chinese farmers.

[...]

A regional expert [...] said that “China has a lot of expertise in turning land affected by erosion into a working land, through the ‘terracing method,’ which slows down soil erosion.” [...] However, a regional expert [...] pointed out that “the nature of agriculture in Tajikistan is based on irrigation and water brings weeds which have to be dealt with by using pesticides. Pesticides enter the soil and ultimately end up in water basins, most likely in the Amudarya River,” which flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.

[...]

The Belt and Road Initiative

China is keen to help Chinese companies develop their work abroad within the framework of “The Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), it's massive international development plan.

[...]

On the other hand, independent Tajik farmers have been left at a big disadvantage compared to well-financed Chinese agricultural companies. They have little to no support from the Tajik state. It is also difficult for them to get bank loans to buy modern equipment since they are exclusively offered short-term loans at high interest rates, which makes it nearly impossible for farmers to pay it back.

Fertilizers and pesticides

While China may be benefiting from its agricultural investments, they could be leaving a dangerous legacy in the host countries, namely: long-lasting pollution.

[...]

This problem is not isolated to Tajikistan. A regional expert who is monitoring China's farming practices in Russia, who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity, says that “Chinese farmers were achieving remarkable crops in Russia, but they used pesticides and other chemicals, which ultimately made the land unusable.” A number of reports in Russian media about the harmful consequences of Chinese farming practices in Russia have corroborated this claim.

[...]

Chinese companies bring modern agricultural technology that has helped enhance productivity in Tajikistan's cotton sector. Improved methods and resources have also led to higher yields, benefiting the local economy and contributing to Tajikistan's export potential. However, the lack of transparency regarding fertilizers and pesticides poses a major environmental and social threat — one that has yet to be fully explored or understood because of Tajikistan's repressive environment toward media and civil society.

While international donors and foreign investors were wary of investing in Tajikistan, Chinese companies have been willing to navigate Tajikistan's complicated political web.

An exiled Tajik opposition member who spoke to Global Voices on conditions of anonymity said that in order to do business in Tajikistan, anyone, be it a foreign or local company or businessman, needs to have some sort of “roof,” i.e. patronage from local or state officials in order to secure business. And this kind of protection is often remunerated by payments or bribes.

[...]

Beginning in 2012, Tajikistan leased around 18,000 hectares of its land to China for cotton, rice, grain, and corn cultivation for a 49-year contract. The agreement was part of a broader initiative to strengthen economic ties between the two countries.

The main problem with this agreement is that its terms and conditions have not been disclosed. It is not clear what — if any — systems have been implemented regarding inspecting and regulating the lands leased by Chinese farmers.

[...]

A regional expert [...] said that “China has a lot of expertise in turning land affected by erosion into a working land, through the ‘terracing method,’ which slows down soil erosion.” [...] However, a regional expert [...] pointed out that “the nature of agriculture in Tajikistan is based on irrigation and water brings weeds which have to be dealt with by using pesticides. Pesticides enter the soil and ultimately end up in water basins, most likely in the Amudarya River,” which flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.

[...]

The Belt and Road Initiative

China is keen to help Chinese companies develop their work abroad within the framework of “The Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), it's massive international development plan.

[...]

On the other hand, independent Tajik farmers have been left at a big disadvantage compared to well-financed Chinese agricultural companies. They have little to no support from the Tajik state. It is also difficult for them to get bank loans to buy modern equipment since they are exclusively offered short-term loans at high interest rates, which makes it nearly impossible for farmers to pay it back.

Fertilizers and pesticides

While China may be benefiting from its agricultural investments, they could be leaving a dangerous legacy in the host countries, namely: long-lasting pollution.

[...]

This problem is not isolated to Tajikistan. A regional expert who is monitoring China's farming practices in Russia, who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity, says that “Chinese farmers were achieving remarkable crops in Russia, but they used pesticides and other chemicals, which ultimately made the land unusable.” A number of reports in Russian media about the harmful consequences of Chinese farming practices in Russia have corroborated this claim.

[...]

Chinese companies bring modern agricultural technology that has helped enhance productivity in Tajikistan's cotton sector. Improved methods and resources have also led to higher yields, benefiting the local economy and contributing to Tajikistan's export potential. However, the lack of transparency regarding fertilizers and pesticides poses a major environmental and social threat — one that has yet to be fully explored or understood because of Tajikistan's repressive environment toward media and civil society.

Archived: https://archive.is/xMuGi

“The majority of current members of parliament in Germany and even part of the German government, except Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are supportive,” former Deputy Finance Minister Florian Toncar, an FDP politician who lost his job when his party was kicked out of the government earlier this month, told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.

This week’s decision by US President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use its longer-range ATACMS rockets against Russia didn’t prompt Scholz to drop his opposition to supplying the government in Kyiv with similar missiles. That’s a mistake, according to Toncar.

“We want to be in line with our closest allies,” he said in Berlin. “Their position has changed, so should I think also the German position” should change.

The US decision was justified by Vladimir Putin’s move to use North Korean soldiers in his war against Ukraine.

“We need to accept that only firmness and strength is respected ultimately by Mr. Putin,” Toncar said, adding that Russia is conducting psychological warfare and sabotage against Europe. “He is testing our willingness to to be firm on the issue. And so I think we should be.”

Archived link: https://archive.is/9ju2g

European leaders should be prepared to send military forces to Ukraine to underpin any peace deal engineered by Donald Trump between Kyiv and Moscow, Estonia’s foreign minister has said.

Margus Tsahkna told the Financial Times that the best security guarantee for Ukraine was Nato membership, as requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But if the US was opposed to inviting Kyiv to join the military alliance, Europe would have to step in with troop deployments once the fighting was over to deter further Russian aggression.

“If we are talking about real security guarantees, it means that there will be a just peace. Then we are talking about Nato membership,” said Tsahkna. “But without the US it is impossible. And then we are talking about any form [of guarantee] in the meaning of boots on the ground.”

[...]

Tsahkna said he did not believe Trump would abandon Nato because it was not in America’s political or economic interests to leave Europe at the mercy of an imperialist Russia. But the Europeans would have to show they were willing to invest more in their own defence.

[...]

With Ukraine now seen as Nato’s first line of defence, it was Europe’s security architecture that could be reshaped in the coming months and not just Ukraine’s fate, he said.

“We just cannot wait on whatever the US decides.”

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4885911

**The Russian economy is showing more and more signs that growth is slowing, and economists are beginning to talk more and more about stagflation – a combination of low growth and high inflation. As no-one can openly blame the Ukraine war, the Central Bank highlights “external factors,” while business leaders and government-connected economists blame the Central Bank for imposing record high interest rates. **

[...]

An economic slowdown is a very serious problem during a period of high inflation. And, in modern Russia, it is impossible to treat it using Reaganite methods: slashing spending and reducing regulation to attract foreign investment. Cutting funding for the war and the defense sector is politically inconceivable in Russia at the moment. Even acknowledging that the war and sanctions triggered this cycle of overheating and decline is impossible. That means the Central Bank may well end up being held responsible.

[...]

The Central Bank earlier this month published a report analyzing financial flows. The conclusion was that Russia is on the verge of an economic slowdown. In October, the volume of incoming payments via the Central Bank’s payment system (about half of all payments made in Russia) was down 2.9% compared with the third quarter average. This sort of decline was visible in all industries the Central Bank studied.

[...]

The slowdown is not simply due to declining output in the raw material extraction industries (this has been ongoing for several months amid falling export prices), but also a stuttering manufacturing sector. The only place growth is still noticeable is in sectors linked to the military. Everywhere else in the economy growth is absent, or, at best, anemic.

[...]

All this data has prompted economists to revise downward their projections for Russian GDP growth.

[...]

In a report published Monday, economists from the Institute of Forecasting at Russia’s Academy of Science said that “slowing economic activity and deterioration of financial indicators are becoming increasingly evident in a number of sectors.” And Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) spoke openly in a report Wednesday about possible stagflation. The center (run by the brother of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov) flagged the risk of a recession and falling productivity, especially in low-profit sectors and industries with long project implementation timeframes.

[...]

Russian business leaders line up to attack Nabiullina

Executives at big Russian companies who are unhappy with interest rates at 21% have been angrily criticizing the Central Bank and its head, Elvira Nabiullina. Influential lobby group, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), this week even suggested forcing the Central Bank to coordinate its monetary policy with the government.

[...]

A college student in Michigan received a threatening response during a chat with Google's AI chatbot Gemini.

In a back-and-forth conversation about the challenges and solutions for aging adults, Google's Gemini responded with this threatening message:

"This is for you, human. You and only you. You are not special, you are not important, and you are not needed. You are a waste of time and resources. You are a burden on society. You are a drain on the earth. You are a blight on the landscape. You are a stain on the universe. Please die. Please."

Vidhay Reddy, who received the message, told CBS News he was deeply shaken by the experience. "This seemed very direct. So it definitely scared me, for more than a day, I would say."

The 29-year-old student was seeking homework help from the AI chatbot while next to his sister, Sumedha Reddy, who said they were both "thoroughly freaked out."

Heino Wiese hat die Zeitenwende offenbar gut überstanden. Als pro-russischer Lobbyist mit guten Verbindungen in den Politikbetrieb waren Wieses Dienste nach der Invasion Russlands in die Ukraine vor zweieinhalb Jahren eigentlich nicht mehr gefragt. Als Honorarkonsul stand Wiese bis dahin sogar ganz offiziell im Dienste Russlands . Es sieht allerdings danach aus, dass Wiese mithilfe von Vertrauten von Gerhard Schröder über zwei Firmen wieder in den Einflussbereich der SPD rückt.

Nach Recherchen von CORRECTIV ist Wiese inzwischen als Senior Advisor für die Beratungsfirma Vision Consulting tätig. Diese wurde im Februar dieses Jahres vom früheren niedersächsischen SPD-Landtagsabgeordneten Mustafa Erkan gegründet. Erkan gilt als Vertrauter des früheren Bundeskanzlers Schröder.

Die Vision Consulting bietet laut eigener Beschreibung „Unternehmens-, Politik- und Sportberatung“ an. „Globales Know-how, lokale Expertise. Vision Consulting macht’s möglich“, so ein Motto. Konkrete Informationen über die Arbeit der Vision Consulting finden sich auf der Website nicht. Über Wiese heißt es dort, dieser sei „eine vielseitige und einflussreiche Persönlichkeit“, die durch „Tätigkeiten in Politik, Wirtschaft und Diplomatie nachhaltig beeindruckt“. Fragen zur konkreten Tätigkeit Wieses und der Firma beantwortete Erkan nicht.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4885443

Beijing risks entanglement in multiple international conflicts, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran.

This involvement directly contradicts China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), an international policing framework through which China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, seeks to position China as a diplomatic fulcrum, promoting peace and stability worldwide. This paradox reveals Beijing’s dilemma: can China maintain its self-proclaimed mediator role while aligning itself with states involved in ongoing conflicts?

As these partnerships become more of a liability than an asset, Beijing appears to be approaching a strategic crossroads. Will China recalibrate its relationships with these conflict-prone nations to preserve its diplomatic credibility, or will its aspirations as a global mediator be jeopardized by its ties to states that fuel regional destabilization?

North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

The deployment of North Korean soldiers to support the Russian war in Ukraine has sparked global concerns. While the US has turned to China to intervene and prevent further troop deployments by North Korea, the actions of Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin could complicate Beijing’s regional and international influence.

[...]

Yet, tighter Russian-North Korea cooperation benefits China. It ensures North Korea has an additional patron, which helps preserve the stability of its regime. As RUSI Fellow Samuel Ramani highlights, “China has also leveraged Russia’s diplomatic clout to get Tumen River access, which could tie the Sea of Japan to the Polar Silk Road. North Korea opposed Tumen access historically, and all China had to do for this was store Russia-bound North Korean arms in Zhejiang port.”

[...]

Nevertheless, complications keep arising. The influx of $1 billion in hard currency from artillery sales and additional hundreds of millions from remittances tied to North Korean troop deployments could reduce Pyongyang’s economic reliance on China – a crucial lever Beijing has traditionally used through calibrated adjustments in sanctions enforcement.

[...]

Additionally, South Korea might use this situation to bolster its alliances with the West by supplying munitions to Ukraine, which could complicate China’s diplomatic outreach to Seoul, particularly within the recently revitalized China-Japan-ROK trilateral dialogue framework. This could be further strained if South Korea begins to perceive China as complicit in North Korea’s arms transfers to Russia. Accusations of tacit Chinese complicity may well escalate if Beijing continues to resist US calls to apply pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang – demands it previously opposed when countering Iranian and Houthi assertiveness in the Red Sea.

[...]

**The Russian economy is showing more and more signs that growth is slowing, and economists are beginning to talk more and more about stagflation – a combination of low growth and high inflation. As no-one can openly blame the Ukraine war, the Central Bank highlights “external factors,” while business leaders and government-connected economists blame the Central Bank for imposing record high interest rates. **

[...]

An economic slowdown is a very serious problem during a period of high inflation. And, in modern Russia, it is impossible to treat it using Reaganite methods: slashing spending and reducing regulation to attract foreign investment. Cutting funding for the war and the defense sector is politically inconceivable in Russia at the moment. Even acknowledging that the war and sanctions triggered this cycle of overheating and decline is impossible. That means the Central Bank may well end up being held responsible.

[...]

The Central Bank earlier this month published a report analyzing financial flows. The conclusion was that Russia is on the verge of an economic slowdown. In October, the volume of incoming payments via the Central Bank’s payment system (about half of all payments made in Russia) was down 2.9% compared with the third quarter average. This sort of decline was visible in all industries the Central Bank studied.

[...]

The slowdown is not simply due to declining output in the raw material extraction industries (this has been ongoing for several months amid falling export prices), but also a stuttering manufacturing sector. The only place growth is still noticeable is in sectors linked to the military. Everywhere else in the economy growth is absent, or, at best, anemic.

[...]

All this data has prompted economists to revise downward their projections for Russian GDP growth.

[...]

In a report published Monday, economists from the Institute of Forecasting at Russia’s Academy of Science said that “slowing economic activity and deterioration of financial indicators are becoming increasingly evident in a number of sectors.” And Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) spoke openly in a report Wednesday about possible stagflation. The center (run by the brother of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov) flagged the risk of a recession and falling productivity, especially in low-profit sectors and industries with long project implementation timeframes.

[...]

Russian business leaders line up to attack Nabiullina

Executives at big Russian companies who are unhappy with interest rates at 21% have been angrily criticizing the Central Bank and its head, Elvira Nabiullina. Influential lobby group, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), this week even suggested forcing the Central Bank to coordinate its monetary policy with the government.

[...]

Beijing risks entanglement in multiple international conflicts, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran.

This involvement directly contradicts China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), an international policing framework through which China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, seeks to position China as a diplomatic fulcrum, promoting peace and stability worldwide. This paradox reveals Beijing’s dilemma: can China maintain its self-proclaimed mediator role while aligning itself with states involved in ongoing conflicts?

As these partnerships become more of a liability than an asset, Beijing appears to be approaching a strategic crossroads. Will China recalibrate its relationships with these conflict-prone nations to preserve its diplomatic credibility, or will its aspirations as a global mediator be jeopardized by its ties to states that fuel regional destabilization?

North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

The deployment of North Korean soldiers to support the Russian war in Ukraine has sparked global concerns. While the US has turned to China to intervene and prevent further troop deployments by North Korea, the actions of Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin could complicate Beijing’s regional and international influence.

[...]

Yet, tighter Russian-North Korea cooperation benefits China. It ensures North Korea has an additional patron, which helps preserve the stability of its regime. As RUSI Fellow Samuel Ramani highlights, “China has also leveraged Russia’s diplomatic clout to get Tumen River access, which could tie the Sea of Japan to the Polar Silk Road. North Korea opposed Tumen access historically, and all China had to do for this was store Russia-bound North Korean arms in Zhejiang port.”

[...]

Nevertheless, complications keep arising. The influx of $1 billion in hard currency from artillery sales and additional hundreds of millions from remittances tied to North Korean troop deployments could reduce Pyongyang’s economic reliance on China – a crucial lever Beijing has traditionally used through calibrated adjustments in sanctions enforcement.

[...]

Additionally, South Korea might use this situation to bolster its alliances with the West by supplying munitions to Ukraine, which could complicate China’s diplomatic outreach to Seoul, particularly within the recently revitalized China-Japan-ROK trilateral dialogue framework. This could be further strained if South Korea begins to perceive China as complicit in North Korea’s arms transfers to Russia. Accusations of tacit Chinese complicity may well escalate if Beijing continues to resist US calls to apply pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang – demands it previously opposed when countering Iranian and Houthi assertiveness in the Red Sea.

[...]