I call this, in memory of Nick Lowe, Mr Pop, "nutted by reality". As his lyrics go, "He was living in a different world, but he was nutted by reality"
this post was submitted on 04 Nov 2024
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Both Hilary Clinton and Elon Musk will be so mad
Weird because the last time I looked at fivethirtyeight's simulated election outcomes based on polling data it was 51:48 Trumps favor and now its 52 for Trump
Interestingly, that site is owned by ESPN and at some point in time it was archived by ABC. Why it was put to use for this is strange.
It's been a polling aggregate since at least before the 2016 election. There is also 270towin which showed a clear Trump victory in their No-Tossup-Polling map until a few days ago, now it shows a tossup because PA polled so evenly.
Then there is betting odds for the US Presidential election, all of which favor Trump by a landslide:
Keep in mind that the more wrong these betting odds are, the more money they will lose, so there is monetary incentive for them to be unbiased.
I'm going to be real with you all. I'm scared of whats about to happen. The only way I would predict a Harris victory is if a huge wave of undecided voters appeared who are outside of the polling target audience. E.G. Generation Z, the elderly who rely on Medicaid, Disabled or Impaired, Hispanics, and others en masse.