this post was submitted on 23 Oct 2024

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As the Israel-Hamas war escalates, Israel refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program (www.npr.org)

submitted 1 month ago by gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

16 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Israel is still vowing to respond to Iran's ballistic missile strikes a few weeks ago. It's part of a terrifying tit for tat between the two regional superpowers that could widen an already escalating war. Meanwhile, Israel is believed to be a nuclear power with 90 warheads, although it refuses to acknowledge its nuclear program, and analysts say Iran could rapidly develop a nuclear weapon if it chose to. It's part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while Israel is not. Victor Gilinsky was a commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan. And he told our co-host Michel Martin how Israel first produced a nuclear explosive device in the late 1960s.

VICTOR GILINSKY: They had a reactor that they got from the French that produced plutonium sufficient for bombs, had, you know, very smart people that knew how to design them. And they also, I think, had help from others, including Americans who had been involved in the program here and then went to Israel.

MICHEL MARTIN, BYLINE: And do we have a sense of what Israel's nuclear capabilities are at this point?

GILINSKY: I don't think we know a lot. We do know they have what we call a triad. You know, they can deliver them by a rocket, by airplanes, and their ultimate deterrent is on submarines. They have submarines that they got from Germany, which they've outfitted with long-range missiles tipped with nuclear warheads.

Archived at https://ghostarchive.org/archive/ZZx7H

The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity.

...

One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran.

Related story archived at https://ghostarchive.org/archive/B9YuN

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[–] Sundial@lemm.ee 26 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I fully expect Iran to decide to develop nuclear weapons after all the events from the past year. It's become abundantly clear diplomacy will no longer keep Israeli aggression in check like it has in the past.

[–] febra@lemmy.world 16 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

I honestly don't understand why not every country isn't producing nuclear weapons at this point. Diplomacy has clearly been a complete farce for decades now. Countries like Israel can develop nuclear weapons without any repercussions, because the "civilized west", while seemingly being so obsessed with international law when it comes to countries like Iran and North Korea, surprisingly tends to forget about whatever Israel is doing, and thus is only selectively applying said international law. In extension, international law is a farce, and is only of importance when it suits one of the superpowers sitting in the imperial core.

[–] Sundial@lemm.ee 13 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It's abundantly clear with the Ukraine example. They disarmed their nukes and both US and Russia agreed to respect their autonomy. A couple of decades later, Ukraine tries to join NATO, Russia says "absolutely the fuck not" and decides to invade them breaking this agreement.

[–] febra@lemmy.world 11 points 1 month ago

Pretty much. International law means nothing in the greater context as long as that benefits the superpowers.

[–] the_crotch@sh.itjust.works 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I honestly don't understand why not every country isn't producing nuclear weapons at this point.

Well, you see, Iraq was invaded and taken over based on a mere rumor that they were developing nukes

[–] bamboo@lemm.ee 4 points 1 month ago

Which they of course didn’t have, which is why they could be taken over like that in the first place. It kinda supports the point.

[–] febra@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Yeah, that's fair. Not like that rumor held any kind of water in the first place. It was started by the US government just because they needed to manufacture consent for an invasion so that they can invade their old buddy Saddam Hussein that stopped listening to them. Hell, they event tricked him into invading Kuwait, telling him behind closed doors that they'll have his back at the UN, then didn't keep on their promise hoping that the invasion would be the downfall of Iraq (which is wasn't and that was the reason for them to maliciously start the false rumor that Saddam was trying to build weapons of mass destruction). I recommend listening to Blowback season 1. It's a really well documented podcast by top tier journalists.

Based on that, why would countries do literally anything at this point? A major superpower can make up any kind of rumor (even maliciously just to use as pretext) to achieve its goals. See Russia with the Nazis in Ukraine.

[–] grue@lemmy.world 21 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

*Israel-Palestine war. Israel is attacking way more than just Hamas.

[–] SilentStorms@lemmy.dbzer0.com 18 points 1 month ago

*Palestinian Genocide

[–] DarkCloud@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

The one it very likely stole 100 kg of refined uranium from American stockpiles to start (see the NUMEC/Apollo affair).

[–] gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world 8 points 1 month ago

MARTIN: It's interesting, 'cause I covered the White House in the administration of George H. W. Bush, and I knew about it. But then when I've talked to colleagues about it, they didn't know about it, and people are continually surprised.

Maybe because news publishers like NPR and CNN never put that detail in the headlines of their stories that brush up against this open secret

[–] technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 month ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

[+] pandapoo@sh.itjust.works -8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

There's actually a very good reason for this, and it benefits everyone, including anti-zionists.

For them to publicly acknowledge it, would force the hand of many countries in the region to develop their own programs, which could result in an uncontrollable nuclear arms race in the wider region.

There's a lot more game theory and realpolitik involved on the subject then I care to delve into on a comment, but there's no shortage of white papers walking through it that anyone is free to read.

So, speaking of someone who is looking forward to Israel's upcoming demographic and economic implosions, I am still very happy they haven't publicly acknowledged their nuclear arsenal.

[–] Saleh 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Care to elaborate? If everyone knows they have nukes, that means everyone has the same incentive to develop a deterrence of their own or to ensure they don't get on the wrong end of it through diplomacy. However given Israels plans to expand into a "greater Israel" occupying half of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, most of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq as well as a small part of Turkey, everyone in the region already has a strong incentive to arm themselves.

[–] pandapoo@sh.itjust.works -1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Not really, because it involves condensing a lot of white papers on the topic of nuclear strategy.

The policy itself is referred to, at least colloquially, as Israeli Nuclear Ambiguity. While that covers a lot of aspects of Israeli nuclear strategy, you probably want to look for papers that deal with how Israeli Nuclear Ambiguity and the US Nuclear Umbrella work together to impact nonproliferation in the wider region.