Is China running some sort of charm offensive right now?
this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2024
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Reposting my comment in Myanmar here to answer. It isn't on charm offensive. This situation is interesting because China is the one arming both sides of the conflict. China is the chief arms supplier to the military Junta whose weapons have been killing civilians. It is with Chinese blessing and Chinese weapons that guerilla group Brotherhood Alliance launched its 1027 operation last year that’s been highly successful against the Junta.
China has in the past gone alone (while rejecting participation of regional and other global powers) in brokering peace in Burma forcing both the Junta and the guerillas to sit down at meetings in southern China without participation of other regional countries. China has been the one meeting with Burma’s current and former dictators in past two months, including Wang's visit to Myanmar 2 days ago.
In an about-face, China is now seeking greater regional cooperation in Burma’s internal affairs. It may well be that the situation is spinning out of control for China, and Chinese are worried their strategic interests are now poised to crumble in Myanmar.
Can you recommend any further reading?
It depends on how much reading you want to do. I find the most insightful author on Burma's civil wars is Bertil Lintner, former journalist who covered Burma and Southeast Asia for decades. Thant Myint-U is the most extensively published historian on Myanmar. His 2019 book https://wwnorton.com/books/the-hidden-history-of-burma should cover the background on current conflicts and Chinese role in it (as I vaguely recall). Wikipedia is not fully reliable as it is but a location for information war on internet. I find some articles on Foreign Policy somewhat naive. Council on Foreign Relations has this brief backgrounder on Burma: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya. It devotes half a sentence to the source of ethnic wars since independence: "Divisions purposely created under British colonial rule...". Lintner and Myint-U will give the best insights. This report is succinct in covering China's role and influence in Burma: https://www.usip.org/publications/2018/09/chinas-role-myanmars-internal-conflicts
Thanks!
Your nick has me curious. Are you from one of the hill tribes of Burma?
No. It's a reference to an old SNL sketch:
lol awesome. love it! haven't seen that one yet.