Canada

The only poll that matters is the one today, which the results will roll in by tomorrow. Don't be complacent, get out there and make sure your vote gets added.

Well, I suppose we'll know for sure tomorrow.

I don’t trust any data from a company that uses basis spline or hobby spline smoothing to represent data without showing the original points and a confidence interval.

It’s an incredibly amateur move to display data this way. All the popular chart libraries include it because people like it, but objectively those people are wrong.

I can rant for hours about this, but the smoothing on their charts actually shows values outside the real range from data. That’s okay if you use a smoothing model like loess with confidence intervals, but it is not okay as a “make it pretty” visualization technique.

These spline smoothed data viz do not show any real trends between the points. The points can force the curve to make sharp jumps that aren’t real during sudden changes or changes in spacing of points. It’s more evident when the lines go below 0, but we don’t have that here.

These charts do not replicate, as new data is added it actually changes the curve, which means you’re not plotting polling results over time anymore. The points are simply anchors on the curve, if you use illustrator for example draw a bunch of points, then hit the smooth button, that’s what’s happening here.

These charts can have curves that go steeper than 90 degrees and actually loop backwards! We don’t live in the Jeremy Bearimy timeline, that can’t happen here. And it did with EKOS charts from a few months ago when they changed the time step of polling.

Is this the poll that said PP could lose his seat?

Getting your last chance digs in to try to manipulate voters I see. Golly, I'd better not vote Liberal to help ~~prevent a majority government~~ get PP into power.

Polls are BS attempting to sway your vote (or lack thereof as the case may be) through trickery. Do not take your riding for granted. Vote like its 999 for 1000 against your candidate.