this post was submitted on 26 Apr 2025
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Degrowth

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Far-right authoritarian pundits and political actors, from Matt Walsh to Elon Musk, all seem to have gotten the same memo instructing them to fixate on “low” fertility and birth rates. Musk has claimed that “population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming” and that it will lead to “mass extinction.”

Some liberals are flirting with this narrative, too. In a February New Yorker essay, Gideon Lewis-Kraus deploys dystopian imagery to describe the “low” birth-rate in South Korea, twice comparing the country to the collapsing, childless society in the 2006 film Children of Men.

It’s not just liberals and authoritarians engaging in this birth-rate crisis panic. Self-described leftist Elizabeth Bruenig recently equated falling fertility with humanity’s inability “to persist on this Earth.” Running through her pronatalist Atlantic opinion piece is an entirely uninterrogated presumption that fertility rates collected today are able to predict the total disappearance of the species Homo sapiens at some future time.

But is this panic about low fertility driving human population collapse supported by any evidence?

https://archive.ph/rIycs

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[–] RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 12 points 3 days ago

Low birth rate of white people, or whatever group is in control.

I’ve always assumed that it was a dog whistle to nationalism and racism at some level, along with birthrates needed to prop up the system requiring infinite growth, the profits of which are primarily diverted to those already wealthy instead of growth in the social services needed to help an aging population.

[–] veganpizza69@lemmy.vg 19 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

The article is pretty good, but you need to have a bunch of context to understand what it's pointing out.

I've been noticing the Social Darwinism plans for a while. The traditional pronatalist policy is indeed that of "quantity", specifically, a high quantity of human capital with high turnover - for labor and war. The human capital, you, need to understand that this means:

  • women are domestic baby factories ("traditional family")
  • men are (wage?) slaves, worked to death with only enough time to sleep and reproduce
  • huge infant mortality rates (this tends to increase fertility as people try to make spare children)
  • huge childhood mortality rates
  • large maternal mortality rate (guess why the chainsaw was invented)
  • an abundance of orphans
  • lower and lower life expectancy (retirement = death)

What I still don't understand is why these pronatalist types want so much human capital when they have so much technology to replace humans, especially now. It's a weird contradiction in the TESCREAL ideologues. If anyone knows, let me know.

Here's a good podcast to get a grip on this very broad topic: the overshoot podcast.

[–] Dogyote@slrpnk.net 13 points 3 days ago

This may answer your question. I've read that the only way to continue making a profit, aka be better off than the laboring masses, is to use human labor power to produce products/services. Why? Because if a process is automated, the process's rate of profit will eventually fall to zero. Why? Competition with other businesses that automate will drive the price down as low as it can go (unless of course there's collusion or a monopoly is allowed to exist).

Put another way, in order to make money, you need to be able to pay your labor less than the value of whatever they're producing. If the whole process is automated, there's no one to pay at all, which is amazing for a hot second, but once another business copies and undercuts you, you need to lower your price to match theirs. Then a third person copies and undercuts you both, and before you know it you're not making any money because everyone is selling a fraction of a cent above cost.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 1 points 2 days ago

They want a cheap work force to steal wealth. That can be done by having a lot of supply in other words natalism or it can be done by lowering demand using technology. They obviously go for both.

[–] reallykindasorta@slrpnk.net 49 points 4 days ago (4 children)

The ‘demographic crisis’ is one of economics and states, not the persistence of the human race. The ratio of the old to the young is increasing drastically. Our global economic systems are simply not designed to support this. Our states cannot exist —as they are—without constant growth and those that fall behind are left behind.

The solution to the ‘demographic crisis’ is to move towards economies that are not based on constant growth so that the phenomenon is no longer a problem. Ironically people will probably be more interested in having babies in this scenario as well. Global capitalism is depressing, soulless, and does not make me go “wow I hope my decedents get to experience this.”

[–] SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

You know economics is about resources and there isn't some magical system that gets around resource distribution, right?

Economics has been termed the dismal science for a reason. A permanent solution to the demographic problems of people living longer will either involve people accepting a lower living standard than they otherwise could have or having people work longer before retiring. Or maybe Logan's Run? It doesn't matter if it's a capitalist society or a socialist society the problems are the same, large population not producing anything but still consuming resources.

But chill, as a great economist once said, in the long run we're all dead anyway. There's still a massive pool of people that want to live in our ever-growing populations. We just gotta stop letting people make us think immigration is a bad thing. It'll be a long time before the entire world is living at the same standard of living we enjoy in the developed world, and with so many people getting suckered into making their countries backwards and authoritarian (thanks, Putin!) it doesn't look like we're going to run out of immigrants that will be willing to move to an affluent democracy any time in our lifetimes.

If we get to a point where we can no longer depend on attracting immigrants because every country in the world is an affluent democracy... well that's a good problem to have, isn't it?

[–] dillekant@slrpnk.net 3 points 3 days ago

Some people talking to you don't seem to be getting it. There's a Kurzgesagt video about Demographic collapse in South Korea. The issue is: You have a country with a boundary, and the entire country can't take care of its elderly, and because it is getting poorer, can't attract people from other nations to take care of its elderly either. This kills the "nation", which can't defend itself and doesn't really have anything to look forward to.

[–] chonglibloodsport@lemmy.world 5 points 3 days ago

Economic crises drive political crises. The trend towards far-right authoritarianism is a global one. People under stress (of many different sorts) favour authoritarianism for some reason.

The pathogen-stress theory of authoritarianism is fairly well studied and has proven robust. There’s similar support for theories of economic stress and poverty driving support for authoritarianism. Population declines can be a major source of economic stress due to the way older generations need to be financially supported by younger workers.

[–] boreengreen@lemm.ee 11 points 4 days ago

Yes, sustainability has to be part of any solution.

[–] HubertManne@piefed.social 35 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Low birthrate is a threat to paying folks a low wage.

[–] azolus@slrpnk.net 8 points 4 days ago (1 children)

This person has class consciousness!

[–] veganpizza69@lemmy.vg 5 points 3 days ago

Workers need to learn about what a birth strike is.

[–] Boomkop3@reddthat.com 17 points 4 days ago

I would definitely like a less busy planet

[–] someguy3@lemmy.world 21 points 4 days ago (4 children)

The only problem with low birthrate is an organizational one, where you don't have enough young population to support the old population. But to me this just means that the organization isn't set up correctly.

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[–] hellofriend@lemmy.world 11 points 4 days ago (4 children)

I mean, it might not be a threat to humanity but it's certainly a threat to my ability to retire. Right now the money I put into CPP is funding the boomers' current retirement and their children's retirement. Who's gonna fund mine? But it's not like my generation could have kids anyway. The same boomers fucked the world so badly that we're only barely able to scrape by. I'm in my 20s, I shouldn't even have to worry about this bullshit.

[–] veganpizza69@lemmy.vg 7 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

You're in c/degrowth. Retirement from economic growth "generating" "passive income" isn't a feature.

[–] chonglibloodsport@lemmy.world 9 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Degrowth supports UBI. Isn’t that a form of passive income?

People eventually retire whether they want to or not. Their body breaks down and they can no longer work. These people need some kind of support or they’re going to die in miserable circumstances.

[–] Tiresia@slrpnk.net 5 points 3 days ago (2 children)

The only way not to die in miserable circumstances is to die suddenly, and retirement homes typically take away people's ability to choose even that.

I would not wish my grandmother's "well-earned retirement" on my worst enemies.

[–] chonglibloodsport@lemmy.world 4 points 3 days ago

No, there are many circumstances in between.

My grandparents both lived in a retirement home for the last few years of their lives. My grandfather died suddenly but my grandmother did not.

My grandmother had a long, gradual decline with dementia. We visited her often and took her out of the retirement home for tea. Her accommodations there were very nice and our family would visit several times per week (grandma had 6 adult children). We would have lunch there and the food was very good. Her dementia meant she could not remember people visiting her but she was not unhappy. She was always happy to see us!

I’m so sorry your grandmother faced miserable circumstances. In Canada we now have legal MAID which I am a supporter of. No one should be forced to live in constant pain without a choice.

retirement homes are not what almost anyone means when talking about retirement, most are simply talking about a form of quitting where you never work again (or never need to).

[–] hellofriend@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago

I'm well aware of the community I'm in. My support for reorganizing our society doesn't change the facts of our current reality. And maybe I'm a cynic or a pessimist, but I don't see developed nations shifting to degrowth until all us peons have been milked for ever last drop of energy we can muster. Even though we need to shift to a model that isn't dependent on infinite growth, there is little likelihood that will happen in the remainder of my lifetime.

[–] nuko147@lemm.ee 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

You will receive less retirement money than Millennials (who will get less than Boomers), while the percentage of your income for pensions increases monthly, and the retirement age rises. This change won’t happen suddenly but in waves.

Many liberal governments in Europe are currently pushing to raise the retirement age. For example, in my country, reforms have already ensured that by the time I reach retirement age, it will be set at 74.

[–] hellofriend@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago

And then we'll find that all the stress that we've gone through due to poor planning and policy has taken 10 years off our lives and we'll all have heart attacks at 70 before we even get to retire. Those that survive will be kept on life support to continue being worker drones for the billionaires. Changing the age of retirement isn't the solution. And if they do decide to do that, then it makes it all the more important that they enact policy to make life easier right now.

[–] SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca 3 points 3 days ago

As a friend who was going through the process of getting citizenship once said "I think Canada wants me as a citizen for the tax revenue."

Yup. That's the deal... immigration = more tax revenue. It's actually way better than having more children. Society has to pay for the education and healthcare for children and doesn't see a dime of tax revenue until the very earliest 18 years, and more likely >20 years. An immigrant that's already educated immediately starts working and paying taxes.

Immigration is basically the cheat code for demographic problems.

The main problem is that boomers didn't move out of their houses into nursing homes (or at least small apartments) as early as previous generations so we have some housing problems. But the boomers won't live forever and when they die off, housing will be freed up.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 3 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Does it? The Canadian fertility rate dropped below replacement in 1971, which is also the case for most other Western countries.

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[–] finitebanjo@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

To all the people talking about old to young ratios: The old built this world, they should suffer the consequences. We have the technology to end hunger and poverty, but in order to use it we need to have less total people. I don't care, or rather I cannot care given the circumstances, if the elderly get left behind in the process.

[–] letsgo@lemm.ee 5 points 3 days ago (7 children)

We don't need fewer people, we need more political will and less political won't. There are more than enough resources to feed and clothe mankind and we now have an extremely effective global delivery system in place, so there is no excuse for not ending global poverty.

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[–] GhostPain@lemmy.world 10 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

There's 8 billion of us on the planet. Humanity is fine. Losing a few billion won't hurt anything except maybe capitalist exploitation.

What won't survive this ramping down is consumerism and the "middle class" lifestyle.

What will make it easier, though, is eating the rich.

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This video suggests that the human population will stabilize at an appropriate level for a given environment, and that it can rebound quickly if that's necessary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-oVwcDg5Uc

[–] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 5 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (9 children)

Hard disagree.

This video (from kurzgesagt) completely changed my perspective: https://youtu.be/Ufmu1WD2TSk

For this exact reason cited in the OP article.

But the bigger problem with Walsh’s argument is that it only makes sense if you care about the quantity of human life more than the quality of human life.

The video illustrates it better than I can, but basically, underpopulation is societally destabilizing and makes people miserable. It reduces quality of life.

It works if we live in a utopian future where people are living longer working lives, staying young longer, automation is reducing job loads, governments are smart, immigration is free and open, global warming isn’t a looming crisis, AI will solve all sorts of problems…

But we don’t.

In the near term, we need a big mass of young people to take care of retired people, otherwise those young people are utterly miserable because they have to work their butts off to support a huge retired population. Again, you can wave your hands and say “automation! immigration! reduced hours!” but that fantasy is clearly not where the world is headed to. Technology is much closer to addressing overpopulation issues, and then we can worry about plateauing birthrates once we got robot butlers taking care of our elders and making their stuff.

The US hasn’t dealt with this because we are privileged enough to have a massive influx of immigrants (who skew young), but we are royally screwing that up.

I despise how this article tries to write it off as an ideological belief, like you’re a Musk loving fool for thinking this.

…I realize I’m probably posting this in the wrong sub. And I’d love to be wrong, but that article is not selling it for me.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 9 points 4 days ago

There are a lot of problems with that. First of all just looking at the elderly is a problem. There are also children, which do cost a society quite a lot of resources. With a low birth rate that group is becoming smaller and smaller. Right now that dependency ratio is at 41.43%. That is actually incredibly low. The US is at 53.88% and Japan is at 69.94%. That is dependent person per worker.

Then the assumption of not keeping up with certain services. Although that is true, there is another site to it the video completely ignores. The population is shrinking and the country has a lot of high quality infrastructure. That means low housing prices, as they are already built. No need to built new railways, streets, sewage systems and the like.

That also goes for the economy. Constant worker shortages, mean the most competitive companies will pay the highest wages and out compete weaker ones. Therefore the average worker will become more competitive.

One important thing here is that South Korea has an incredibly low fertility rate. 2.1 is replacement level. So 0.7 means each generation is 2/3 smaller then the previous one. However most places in the world are above 1.4, which would just mean 1/3 less people per generation, which makes it a lot more manageable. Also again migration. The world is still above replacement level of 2.1.

[–] Dogyote@slrpnk.net 12 points 4 days ago (1 children)

That video changed your perspective? It was entirely full of assumptions. Yeah, sure, if things continue as they are now and nothing changes, then economic issues will ensue. HOWEVER, things will change, societies will react and adapt to the evolving situation. So all the doom and gloom predicted in that video is just that, a shit prediction based on shit assumptions.

[–] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 5 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

The population demographic projections look quite definitive to me, barring something drastic like a high-mortality pandemic. They're much shorter term than overpopulation projections, hence probably closer to reality.

HOWEVER, things will change, societies will react and adapt to the evolving situation.

The probable reaction is to just burden the working class, as is happening right now with every other problem. This very thread, and pretty much every disaster in the world, is an example of how, well, societies aren't going to react until its waaay too late.

[–] Dogyote@slrpnk.net 8 points 4 days ago (6 children)

I agree, that is the probable reaction, but the working class will have more and more leverage the smaller the class gets.

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[–] veganpizza69@lemmy.vg 4 points 3 days ago

from kurzgesagt

red flag

[–] hellofriend@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

Can't even say "eat the rich" anymore because most of them are old and stringy.

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