How quickly will capacity degrade charging at that speed?
this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2023
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Other challenges include access to battery materials and battery degradation, though CATL claims this second pain point is not an issue with its latest battery.
If true then that's the real innovation for me. I don't want a car that I basically need to replace 70% the cost of every 4-5 years.
Current batteries can do 1000- 3000 cycles before the capacity drops below 80%.
With ranges of several hundred km this gives us hundreds of thousands km of lifetime mileage, if not a million.
Most ICE cars don't get that far either.
Most 4 cylinder ice cars will go 300,000 miles on the motor before the motor would need replaced if you take good care of them, and at that point you could drop a new motor in for $5,000 with labor.
These large batteries on the other hand are looking to cost triple that.
Also, there plenty of ice vehicles with original motors on the road that are well over 15+ years old and still run great (I own 3) but even with a new tech lithium battery that can stay good for 2,000 charge cycles, there is NO lithium battery getting cycles put on it or not that doesn't go bad after about 15 years. You're currently guaranteed to need a new battery after that long and since most vehicles are worth $10k or less after they're 15+ years old that leaves the vehicles worth a bit more than scrap.
This is probably the biggest reason why I won't buy a battery powered vehicle right now, and when I try explaining that to people they're like "well then just lease or sell it and buy a new one lol".
That's not really an honest comparison though, and also kind of simply doesn't matter.
Most vehicles will have some expensive component fail well before the engine, and after ~10 years almost any major replacement will cost $5k or more. My suspension gave out at year 8 and it would have cost me $5k to repair my Ford valued at $5k. Who's going to want to spend that - on an engine or otherwise - on a 15+ year old car unless it's a particularly well regarded model by enthusiasts? The average consumer doesn't care.
The average consumer wants a new car after a decade simply for new features (like sensors or safety), change of lifestyle (like going from a sedan to a van for kids or an SUV to a sports car), or even simply styling and aesthetic. If the battery lasts 5+ years than the average consumer wants the car in the first place, it won't matter.
Not to mention that in the coming years, the price of replacing battery packs will likely drop, while the price of replacing engines may likely increase, as OEMs ramp down engine production and ramp up battery production.
The average shade tree mechanic (like myself) or a "friend" can replace that truck suspension in less than a day and do it with good aftermarket stuff for $800, or cheap stuff that will last a few years for $400 and get it done in an afternoon. That is absolutely not possible with the larger EV batteries, and the battery pack itself is $10,000, not including labor.
Your comparison to a truck suspension (which you laughably overpriced, even with taking it to a shop) is worlds different from dealing with an EV battery.
Your engine pricing ramp up also isn't going to happen in the next decade, and generally if it's an old vehicle you won't put a new motor in them anyhow. You need a motor for a car from 2005 you're much more likely to buy a used one, or a used rebuilt one.
This is coming from someone who's done automotive work for the past 20 years and own, repairs, and quite enjoys a prius, so it's not like I'm against evs for no reason. I just know right now it's tossing money down a sinkhole. EV isn't there yet for the US. Smaller countries where evs that only need 150km range and batts are cheaper it would be fine in, but in the US it won't work yet. Not for the power grid or economically.
It may have changed in recent years but several years ago when I was more into EVs it was a reasonable concern. But I do somewhat question the legitimacy of this seeing as how quickly small electronics Lithium batteries degrade.
There are now soooo many studies out showing that capacity in EVs drops significantly slower than ever expected. An EV that is used "normal" is basically best-case for Li-Ion batteries. You are charging the car once to twice a week and then you are charging it slowly over night or at your office, only using fast-charging when you are on roadtrips. You rarely drop your battery percentage below 30% and a lot of cars also dont go higher than 90% capacity without you explicitly activating it
Do you mean phone batteries? Cause they are often cycled at least once a day. If you drive your ev for 500km a day, yes, don't expect it to last five years. But I would think an ICE car would handle that either.