this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2025
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A very important thing to remember this election: The Conservatives had a 30-point lead and were set to gain over 200 seats in a sweeping majority victory and they blew it. They blew it and their leader lost his own seat. The fact we even have a Liberal minority at all is incredible.
So while the Conservative party still has a lot of seats, enough Canadians disliked PP and his campaign enough to erode a 30 point lead. PP says he is staying on as party leader but his party would be incredibly foolish to keep him. His campaign cost them a historical election victory and the dude can't even get elected in his own riding.
Happy that the Trump presidency could at least contribute one positive outcome.
Trump won the election for the liberals more than anyone else.
Nah, the Liberals deserve the bigger credit. I don't necessarily think they could have won without Trump shitting the fan for Conservatives but their actions created the necessary conditions for the win: 1) Drop Trudeau; 2) Don't pick Freeland, pick a white middle age man from the finance industry; 3) Get rid of the consumer carbon pricing; 4) Focus on the economy instead of progressive values. Without any of these, it would have been a CPC win even with Poilievre wearing a MAGA hat.
"We won! What did we win? ... fuck, shit."
What happens when the black hole of an American recession sucks Canada down along with it in another few years?
American liberals played the same game in 2020. They got four years of Biden. Everyone hated it. And then they sent Trump back up into office like '17-'21 never happened.
Carney has a few advantages over Biden: he is actually liked by true Liberals (so far), he's not senile and landed the job just because he had decades in the party (on the contrary, he has that outsider business-man status that the middle class loves), and he has a nationalist movement timed nicely for him.
That said, it's still true that...
if this tariff bullshit intensifies, Canada will face a recession under Carney and the country will turn to a conservative government - one that will open the doors for American imperialism, bails out corporations, and cuts services that would save lives of the people that will end up in the streets after losing their jobs. I find it very unlikely that this minority liberal government would survive a significant economic downturn, regardless of who would be in charge of it.
:-/
:-)
🤮 I have never actually seen a "business-man" candidate that does well on the merits above the office of mayor. Even then, "business guy" mayors tend to be some of the most shamelessly corrupt and despicable people to touch the office.
But I guess he's one-for-three, which is better than Biden.
The nature of liberal politics is knowing you're on a pendulum ride and making the best of whatever time you've got. Far too often, I see liberals insist they can ride the pendulum through the conservative arc by just pretending at conservative politics for a few years and then going back to being liberals again a few years later. Conservatives, by contrast, leap at the chance to inject every right-popular policy they can when they're in office and then scream about obstructionism as they lose popular support.
The consequence of these two strategies executed in cycle is a country that keeps getting ratcheted to the right by degrees. A country - like America - was broadly on board with gay rights and carbon caps and universal public health care and public university education twenty years ago. Now we're obliterating elementary schools, green-lighting coal ash dumping, and hunting transgender people for sport.
If Carney is going to waste the next few years, Canada is going to be even more fucked for his nominal victory than the UK is looking as it goes into a 28% Reform Party cycle.
Indeed. We dodged the bullet but we're still sliding downhill. The time for conservatives is coming, unfortunately. I just hope that the next time the pendulum swings back, we get some electoral reform done and more modern and sturdy guardrails to soften the next round.
Still, I daydream myself into hope and into action. No one knows what's coming long term, so I imagine progress. That's the only way I can function instead of growing apathetic out of despair. Next cycle I'll be here once more, campaigning ABC.
Electoral reform is one of very few things -- possibly the only thing -- that could actually avert this otherwise inevitable result. If Carney delivers on housing and pulls an economic miracle out of the hat I've never seen him wearing, we'll maybe defer payment for another election cycle, maybe two.
We probably don't have that long to stop systematically pitting left and center against each other, paving the way for a worse outcome that represents fewer Canadians than ever before.
You're not thinking like a Conservative MP. Yess PP lost the run for PM and humiliatingly lost his riding, but overall the party grew in influence and in number of seats tremendously under his leadership. We're now closer to a two party system, and Conservatives benefit from this tremendously. CPC ate the PPC. I'm 100% sure that they're chucking this loss to bad luck with Trump timing, they had to reinvent themselves in 3 months. With 2 years of planning (and bootlicking down south), they'll be better prepared and Poilievre is their winning strategy. In this cycle, the CPC successfully FPTP'ed the NDP and the Greens out of existence. They're well positioned to a minority govt with Bloc in a few years.
I agree the Conservatives have grown in influence but I don't believe it was because of Poilievre. It doesn't matter who leads the conservative party, the Canadian pendulum was due to swing back to the Cons, he dropped the ball hard, and probably still would have won if it wasn't for Trump slapping Canada in the face and waking a bunch of us up. Any influence gained was because it was "their turn", not Poilievre's leadership.
The question is, did the Conservatives come close to winning because of Poilievre, or did they lose a sure thing because of him? Based on what things looked like 6 months ago, I'd say the latter.
Yeah, I don't think people wanted Poilievre specifically. They just wanted change.
Sure, for the opposition leader it's a matter of adding or removing momentum to the pendulum swing. He definitely added a lot of momentum, to the point that the Liberals had to throw the PM and its climate policy under the bus to get one more term. That's a hell of an effective opposition leader.
I'm not saying that he's a genius or anything, but making good use of your "turn" is not an easy task. He has demonstrated that he's good at it, to the point of landslide victory projections 6 months ago.
And that's exactly why it's going to be easy to brush off his loss. Sure, he'll face criticism on his failure to pivot the party messaging post-Trudeau, but that was a nearly impossible situation. Would any other CPC MP have done a better job of riling up the conservatives against the Liberals without in the end get blindsided by anti-republican sentiments? Jamil Jivani? I don't see any reason to believe the CPC will have a better shot with someone else.
If they do end up booting Poilievre out of the leader seat, it will be because the CPC is a bucket of selfish snakes and lizards vying for power. It is possible. Surely someone is salivating at this opportunity. I just find it unlikely, because the vast majority of MPs are satisfied with his work and will simply bide their time, they'll be better prepared in two years.
Look at the polling. When asked which party people preferred (ignoring leadership) the CPC had way more support than when leadership is considered.
Did you notice the CPC ads in the last week and a half didn't have PP in them? It's obvious to everyone (including CPC strategists) that PP drug down the CPC. If the CPC didn't even have a leader, they would've won. But PP led them to defeat.
But I'm not a Conservative, so if half of the CPC wants to remain faithful to PP, I'll get out my popcorn and enjoy the CPC civil war that'll happen if PP refuses to step aside.
I disagree that he is effective in anything other than being not Trudeau and being a contrarian in the American conservative mold. If he was at all a good politician he would not have fumbled this election the way he did. The liberals made some good plays but if PP had spent one minute reading the room instead of playing party over country he might have been PM.
If he manages to hang around until the next one he will probably get in when the left splits again but it won't be because he's good at his job it will be because he has a pulse and a name on the ballot under conservative.
But what leader would do better for the party? PP had initially focused on being anti-Trudeau because his party's policies weren't going to win. Then, his party got fucked by being associated with Trump and PP tried to keep Trump out of the election.
PP got beat, but he played his political hand relatively well.
My personal belief is that the reason Trudeau resigned is because the Liberal Party got a political consultant to determine what would get the party to a win, and determined that the party needed a more traditional business focused leader to get the win, and that they needed to pick someone with a good image overall. I think where the conservatives failed is picking a pretty faceless generic conservative who is not very accessible and does the old Harper trick of two questions only, and doesn't even seem to like anything or anybody in Canada very much, and there was no love in particular for the leader, just the Fuck Trudeau crowd banging their endless gong. I think the trouble they have as a party is that none of their members in particular have an appealing personality that connects with people at all, or reflects traditional Canadian values or make anything in the country better, they just gripe about what the Liberals do and try to block it. I do not think many people connect with the empty suits that their party consists of, just angry, stupid or old people who want things to go back in time vote for them, or greedy rich people hoarding wealth.
Unless they get a personable candidate and stay away from social issues like abortion, LGBT issues and the golden calf of health care, they'll never go anywhere. A tide of ignorance is not going to sway undecided voters, and I think if Canadians have their values threatened we retreat to the safety of the Liberals. I don't think they have anyone like that in their party at all who could lead, and I don't think they're savvy enough to attract someone like that.
They fucked themselves by associating with Trump and America's conservadorism.
Yeah, but what else did they have?
I think it doesn't matter because it's never policies that win their game but bullshit. They will have something else,absolutely mundane and replaceable next time.
I'll do it. I'm a straight white married man. Business owner with a finance background. I'm also very left wing. I'm the perfect Manchurian candidate.