this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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Are there people out there that were actually on the fence about Trump? Seems like the only thing that was going to determine this race is if liberal voters would go to the polls or not. Trump voters seemed to already be fully decided.
I don’t see how this event could change things for Trump.
It might be more about energising the base to turn out rather than swaying the undecided voters at this point.
Even still, Trump already had the most energized base there is. Like taking a flamethrower to an active volcano eruption.
For every energised Trump supporter you see, there's 1000 more sitting at home nodding along to their Fox broadcast. Same for any political party.. The vast vast vast majority of us aren't motivated enough to leave our homes for politics outside of election day.
No, it's not the same for any political party. There is a huge and infamous bias. Conservative voters VOTE. There is a 30% base that always votes, and always votes conservative. That makes up MOST conservative voters, the difference is mainly swing voters.
This is why voter turnout so so important for progressive candidates, and why voter disenfranchisement and generally muddying the waters is such an effective strategy for conservatives. Nothing that happens ever affects their base, but if the rest of the voters don't turn out, then conservatives win. When there are large turnouts, conservatives get CRUSHED every time.
It's not the same for any political party.