this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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Are there people out there that were actually on the fence about Trump? Seems like the only thing that was going to determine this race is if liberal voters would go to the polls or not. Trump voters seemed to already be fully decided.
I don’t see how this event could change things for Trump.
Man, people on lemmy need to look outside of their own bubbles a little more. There's more than just those in my camp and those against my camp.
There are uninformed voters who genuinely do not pay as much attention to politics as those of us on this platform do. Uninformed voters exist and they are influenced by the big headlines like this.
This is why other factors regarding a candidate such as whether or not they are likeable matter. It's not for me. It's not for you or any other hardline party entrenched voter. It's for them, the ones who barely pay attention.
What I am wondering is among that uninformed voter base are there people who think "hmm, maybe I won't vote for the guy that somebody just tried to kill."
Sure, but there probably a lot more who think, "man, someone thinks this guy is dangerous, maybe he's onto something big!"
The scariest thing is not that there are people who would vote for trump, but the amount of people that can't imagine why someone would vote or think different than them. The level of "same as me" bias is really scary.
I get that, but people are acting like this is a guaranteed win for Trump just because he was shot at and can claim that he’s a martyr. I just don’t think there’s enough undecided voters that will swing the election for Trump this easily.
It might be more about energising the base to turn out rather than swaying the undecided voters at this point.
Even still, Trump already had the most energized base there is. Like taking a flamethrower to an active volcano eruption.
For every energised Trump supporter you see, there's 1000 more sitting at home nodding along to their Fox broadcast. Same for any political party.. The vast vast vast majority of us aren't motivated enough to leave our homes for politics outside of election day.
No, it's not the same for any political party. There is a huge and infamous bias. Conservative voters VOTE. There is a 30% base that always votes, and always votes conservative. That makes up MOST conservative voters, the difference is mainly swing voters.
This is why voter turnout so so important for progressive candidates, and why voter disenfranchisement and generally muddying the waters is such an effective strategy for conservatives. Nothing that happens ever affects their base, but if the rest of the voters don't turn out, then conservatives win. When there are large turnouts, conservatives get CRUSHED every time.
It's not the same for any political party.
He’s also disillusioned a lot of who should be his base by being who he is.
Ironic but here in 2024 we’re going to be hoping for the
silent majority
on the right to stay home.It might not even be about voting anymore at this point. Their god-king was almost assassinated. This will 100% mobilize certain people to do certain things.
Shit maybe they postpone the election. I don't even know if that would be a good thing or bad thing at this point.
Edit: By "they," I don't mean Trump or the Republicans. My point is that a whole lot can happen between now and November, and I think we can all agree by now that it's impossible to predict what that will be. If political violence escalates far enough, I don't think some kind of emergency declaration by Biden is outside the realm of possibility.
Would obviously have severe implications... But so does everything else that's happening so...
Trump can't postpone the election. He's not president.
I didn't say Trump would postpone the election, did I?
A lot can happen between now and November. Given how things have been going, lots of things we have no way of predicting at this point. If political violence escalates far enough, I could see there being some kind of State of Emergency declared or some shit.
This ain't nothing. This is why I don't think people truly appreciate what it would be like to live through civil war or a Troubles-esque civil unrest.
An election has never been postponed and never will be for the snowflakes
Wasn't really my point. You can see my edit for some clarification if you want.
The is going to be their Reichstag moment.
"Proof of violent left" may sway some voters. Ofc they won't care that the shooter was a Republican and they won't know about Project 2025.
Was any information released on the shooter?
Yes, there was.
He was also wearing a "Demolition Ranch" t-shirt ... which take from that what you will.
Yes. A huge amount.
It's not that they don't know about Project 2025, they just don't care about it. I've seen so-called "centrists" straight-up claiming that Project 2025 isn't real just because Trump disavowed it... ignoring the fact that he had to since it was actually hurting his poll numbers. (The people who wrote P2025 are core members of Trump's campaign staff. How naive do you have to be to see that and still think a politician wouldn't lie?)
I've had people say Project 2025 "Is just an exaggeration", because the "Legislative and Judicial branches won't allow it"
Ignoring that the Supreme Court literally does whatever Trump wants..
Fucking hell, seriously... pardon the invocation of Godwin's Law, but people used the same "Legislative and Judicial branches won't allow it" excuse to claim that Hitler winning the elections in Germany wouldn't be that bad and we all know how it ended up.
The amount of people burying their heads in the sand regarding Project 2025 is infuriatingly high and I hate it.
People accusing me of fear mongering when I point to a blatantly obvious problem... what else is new sigh
Oh, no no, I wasn't accusing you of fearmongering, I was actually agreeing with you! Sorry for coming off the wrong way, I didn't mean my post to come off as accusatory. :/
Oh no, I'm just letting you know what happens when I tell people about 25
When you have an FPTP voting system, many people don't vote for, they vote against. Plenty will see Biden calling Zelensky a Putin, then this and... Good luck, Americans!
Hmm still not convinced. Got anything else?
it's not (just) about convincing people to vote for Trump.
it's about convincing people to actually vote.
if voting were compulsory, then no, it wouldn't really matter. But it isn't. So people who would vote for Trump, but wouldn't bother to leave the house might be bothered to leave and vote for the convicted criminal rapist now.
This is the nugget of truth in this sea of tinfoil hats. This won't change anyone's decision, because it's not intellectual. It will convince people to go out and vote, because notlw they'll feel they have to. After all, is it such a big ask to go out and vote for your god-king, after he literally took a bullet for you?
I see how this could have helped his campaign. And it sucks.