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They are already in parliament and will gain votes but they will not govern, that's pretty much guaranteed. We will get a conservative-led government though, a little to the right of Merkel. Most probably a conservative/social democratic coalition (think Mitt Romney Republicans with Biden Democrats) or a less likely less stable conservative/green coalition (think Mitt Romney Republicans with AOC Democrats).
The new government will be pro Ukraine (with the conservatives and greens extremely so, with the social-democrats a little hesitant but mainly, too) but also pro-Israel (with the greens more hesitant). All parties involved are pro European integration.
To be honest, foreign policies will not change much except for the European Chat Control legislation. While the current German government is strongly against it, Social Democrats are somewhere between indifferent and in favor, conservatives are strongly in favor and while Greens are against it, I can see them agreeing to a bad compromise with the conservatives.
I agree with most of what you said, except the Greens being less pro-Israel. They have passed a ridiculous non binding resolution with the CDU that calls for every University, Theatre, Museum and other place of science or culture to have a "structured dialogue" with the internal security. In other words they want to place an internal security agent at every of these places to make sure nobody who is not "without a doubt not antisemitic" aka anyone who isn't radically pro Israel receive any funding, projects, exhibition spaces or prizes.
Also the head of the "German Israeli Society" Volker Beck is a member of the Green party and former MEP for the Greens. He calls for Israel to permanently annex Gaza, called for denying food and other basic necessities to Gaza as a "bargaining" for Hamas to release the hostages.
These kind of statements are illegal under German laws, specifically made after the Nazi era to prevent incitement to hate and violence against minorities.
The Green party have a genocidal fascist in their own rows and they make no effort to remove him. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Looking at statements from Baerbock, the current foreign minister, who boasts about her background in international law and also justifies murdering civillians, spreads Israeli disinformation and openly denied Israeli war crimes despite available video evidence. Also all weapon deliveries needed approval by the Foreign ministry and the Economic ministry, both run by Green ministers, with the other Minister Habeck being now the "chancellor candidate" of the Green party.
Where does he do that? (I know this is 4 days old.)
And there have been no weapons deliveries for the best part of 2024 (iirc, the last German weapons deliveries were in February), with the Greens stepping on the brakes there.
https://xcancel.com/Volker_Beck/status/1867482839488385329#m
"Israel will not withdraw from all of Gaza. Otherwise 7th of october would be repeated in the time to come"
So he demands an indefinite occupation, which utlimately means annexation, in particular as Israeli settler terrorists as well as government ministers are making plans for settling in Gaza.
Thank you for that twitter workaround link.
As for weapons deliveries another 100 million € worth have been approved since August and are currently in delivery or in part have arrived already.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/germany-approves-over-100-million-in-arms-exports-to-israel-angering-rights-groups/
I don't think that's what he means, see this Phoenix interview (German). No doubt his ideas are rather harsh (not the best word, but I need to leave now) though.
(Ftr, for anyone confused at this exchange -- the Twitter thing was in a completely different thread.)