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Zelenskyy: No world leader has the right to negotiate with Putin on behalf of Ukraine
(www.pravda.com.ua)
this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2024
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Holy shit, I haven't looked at the numbers in a while, but
Result:
This has to be getting close to a point where most Russians know someone personally that has been killed or severely wounded in the war...
I heard a while ago that a very well connected person (the sort of person that doesn't need to work and could spend all their free time maintaining family relations and friendships) would really only be able to maintain family relations and friendships with about two hundred people. The sort of people that say "I have 1000 friends on Facebook" are talking complete bollocks, there's a huge difference between a relationship/friendship and an acquaintance that you haven't talked to for fifteen years. The average person truly knows many less people than this, usually in the low dozens.
Using your figures and assuming that these relationships are 50/50 male/female, even these very well connected people would statistically still know less than one injured soldier and have less than a 1/3 chance of personally knowing someone that was killed.
I know this comment assumes and extrapolates quite a bit and the idea is somewhat of a tangent from the original comment, but I think it's quite interesting.
True, I did a quick calculation and the probability of knowing someone killed or severely injured is
So around ⅓ Russians know at least one person that's been killed or wounded, and around 10-20% of Russians have someone in their inner circle of friends and family (10-20 closest) that have been killed for wounded.
For this last number to reach 50%, the number of killed+wounded needs to reach about 5% of the fighting age population (≈2.5 million).
Of course, the above assumes that casualties are randomly distributed in the population. In reality it's likely that fewer people know someone killed or wounded, and that those that know someone likely know more, because of the casualties being disproportionately effecting more rural regions of the country.