this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2024
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BEIRUT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Israeli tank fire hit three towns along Lebanon's southeast border with Israel on Thursday, Lebanese security sources and state media said, a day after a ceasefire barring "offensive military operations" came into force.

Tank fire struck Markaba, Wazzani and Kfarchouba, all of which lie within two kilometres of the Blue Line demarcating the border between Lebanon and Israel. One of the security sources said two people were wounded in Markaba.

Under the ceasefire terms, Israeli forces can take up to 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had instructed the military not to allow residents back to villages near the border.

Lebanon's speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, the top interlocutor for Lebanon in negotiating the deal, had said on Wednesday that residents could return home.

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[–] jonne@infosec.pub 23 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I knew Israel wasn't going to abide by the ceasefire as soon as I read the terms. Hezbollah now retreated, Israel has 2 months to basically destroy and depopulate South Lebanon, and when the 60 days are up they'll find some reason to stay. And by then Trump will be inaugurated, so there's not even going to be any pretense of pressure from the US to stick to the ceasefire at that stage.

I don't really get why Hezbollah agreed to this, presumably they should know better?

[–] IndustryStandard@lemmy.world 10 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

The timing is truly mysterious. Trump has not yet taken office, Iran still has a promised attack waiting, and suddenly Hezbollah accepts a ceasefire decoupled from a ceasefire in Gaza. Which was their red line.

I would consider three options of what happened behind the scenes (or a mix of all three)

  • Significant concessions made behind the scenes by France and the US (and promise to push for a Gaza ceasefire?)
  • Significant threats against Lebanon by France and the US (potential direct strikes from the US and Europe / Sanctions on Lebanon?)
  • Hezbollah leadership has been compromised after assassinations of their previous leaders (less likely as they are coupled to Iran which is intact)

Whichever it is, while the ceasefire has only officially been accepted by Lebanon and not Hezbollah, as long as they abide by it while Israel remains in full control the situation is stuck in a weird limbo.

As usual Israel will keep firing and bombing and at one point someone will retaliate, which will be the point at which history starts according to western narratives.

[–] jonne@infosec.pub 9 points 1 day ago

Ah, didn't know this was only agreed to by Lebanon, not Hezbollah. That's weird, Lebanon wasn't even involved as an entity (besides getting bombed by Israel, I guess).

And yeah, your last paragraph is spot on. Someone will fire back, and that's the only breach we'll hear about in Western media, never mind the facts.