this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2024
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Its not up to the UK. Its unlikely the EU would let them back in so soon, and if they did the UK would be in a weak bargaining position so they wouldnt get all the opt outs and exemptions they had before. Also EU progressives seek greater integration and the UK was the loudest voice against it. Its a lose lose.
As its been 8 years from the vote and the paperwork still hasnt been figure out, its probably going to be another 20-30 years until things have simmered down enough that people can objectively look back and say it was the worst decision in modern history without people getting all pissy and defensive (most of them will have died of old age). Then they can apply to join again.
Northern Ireland might get back in sooner though. Maybe Scottland as well, but less likely.
Yeah Northern Ireland could basically just vote to join Ireland.
Scottland would have a harder time. As much as i support the idea they would have to leave the UK, develop an economy good enough to meet the joining criteria (might need to create their own currency), then get permission to join from all member states, including the ones with seperatist movements which dont want to be seen as lenient towards seperatist causes.
It is possible as they could likely use the Euro in the mid term (but this would cause their borrowing rates to be higher than if they had their own currency, as they have no control over monetary policy) and maybe the countries with seperatist movements wouldnt care as they're leaving the UK. But its a bit of a gamble..
Edit: added clarification about currencies
Wouldn't they now also have to adopt the Euro?
Yes thats one of the opt outs they would have had before. That being said there is no timeline on it, there are still 6 EU states which dont use the Euro and are supposed to change to it in the future. Only denmark has a permanent opt out.