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I'm glad we're in agreement there.
I also agree here, though I think the importance of the speed of progress isn't the important part here. Even if it takes a billion years, it potentially wouldn't matter because an extraterrestrial race could have evolved a billion years earlier than us. Though this gets into the problem of stability over long periods like you've mentioned.
Absolutely, but another thing to consider is that it may not be a requirement to have a fully habitable planet. Earth has already, since before industrialization, had places that are effectively uninhabitable to humans. We're reducing the area that is habitable at a terrifying rate, but it could be the case that it becomes irrelevant. My mind goes to a world like that of Earth within the Warhammer 40k series. The Earth is just fucked, plastered and cemented over, with a poisonous atmosphere, etc. They just brute force the problem by ignoring it.
That, and living on a planet may not be necessary in the first place. Given the composition of our asteroid belt, it has basically everything we'd ever need for potentially thousands of years, easily available and minable, relatively speaking. Outside of food problems, it could potentially be possible to live nomadically in space.
Maybe, maybe not. It could be the case that wormholes, alcubierre drives, and other forms of FTL shenanigans are impossible, and the only way to get somehwere else is to send a generational ship. If that's how things play out, intelligent life might hope from one system to the next in a manner similar to conway's game of life. It isn't at equilibrium, because each planet is drained of resources rapidly, but there is enough momentum to keep things going.
That could be the case. It also could be the case that those timescales aren't needed, because FTL is somehow possible. We literally just don't know right now.
To add even more to this complete speculation, it may be the case that there are stable political systems, without boom and bust cycles, that aren't capitalist, socialist, or communist. It could be the case that technology inevitably advances such that the bust is self-annihilation, but it could also be the case that technology inevitably advances such that there isn't any possible way for their to be a bust, that it isn't possible to revolt against the bourgeoisie/monarch/dictator. AI systems are going to get a lot more crazy over these next few years, and a large chunk of it will be used to quell protest and dissidents. They can already track people based on the gait of their walk, what when (not if) that technology is expanded upon? The technology is very clearly here to use small scale drones to attack individual people, what happens when (again not if) that technology is expanded upon? We may find ourselves in a position with the bourgeoisie impossible to touch thanks to technology.
This question of economic/political stability is essentially just one possible answer to the fermi paradox and great filter.
Yeah, I agree.
Maybe I've just focused on science fiction dystopias too much, but I can envision it. But that's not to say I think it likely.