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When JD Vance says that Trump "'explicitly' told him that he [Trump] would veto a federal abortion ban", I believe JD Vance. Whatever was happening in the room at the time, Trump thought that that statement would be most beneficial to him personally in that moment. When Trump said the opposite thing in the debate, it's because he thought that would be most beneficial to him personally in that moment.
The only thing that matters to Trump is what he thinks is best for him personally right now. Ethics are irrelevant. Legality is irrelevant. Continuity is irrelevant. Reality is irrelevant. He does not remember the past and he cannot conceive of the future. "Me, now" is the only thing that matters to him. There is no big picture. His entire universe is a singularity of "me, now."
Best summary of Trump I've read yet.