News

There are a number of large Muslim communities across the Midwest. I doubt it would move the needle in Indiana or North Carolina, but there was a sizable Uncommitted Vote in Michigan specifically focused on the Palestinian Genocide. That's a swing state Harris desperately needs. Juicing turnout in Deerborn could easily be what closes the deal in November.

The second poll, linked in the last quoted paragraph, has info on the swing states

A significant share of Democrats and independent voters in pivotal swing states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee (presumptively Kamala Harris) if said nominee pledges support for an arms embargo to Israel, and if President Joe Biden secures a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The findings come in new polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project and conducted by polling firm YouGov.

In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.

Overall, Democrats and independents in all three states examined in the exhibited YouGov/IMEU poll have strong support for a permanent ceasefire and disapproval of unconditional aid to Israel. At least 80% of respondents in each state supported a ceasefire, while more than 60% disapproved of unconditional military aid to Israel. Roughly a quarter of respondents in all states said the violence in Gaza — and candidates’ positions on it — is important to them and will likely sway how they vote.