Based on public statements by defense-sector officials and his own interviews, military expert Maxim Starchak, a Fellow at the Center for International and Defense Policy at Queen’s University, concludes that the growing shortages of workers in the military-industrial complex are an insoluble problem.
The “demographic hole” in Russia (by late 2022 the number of workers under 30 years old had dramatically decreased) only intensifies the competition for personnel. “There are now half as many young people on the labor market than required,” says Natalia Nikulinskaya, head of HR at Penza PTPA, a manufacturer of pipeline fittings.
Obviously, the war in Ukraine has significantly exacerbated the demographic issues. According to career consultant Galina Babkova, based on official data and calculations by independent media, 650,000 able-bodied men went to war in Ukraine.
In June, industrial output in Russia slowed sharply, with the subsegments of military equipment and optics/electronics production falling for two straight months. This suggests that industry is plateauing amid the labor problems and tight monetary policy. Salary increases and other measures have ceased to push workers into industry, which is starting to slip.
We have had many predictions like that before. I believed in some and I take myself to be quite conservative in these estimations. What I saw is that none of them actually happen as an event, but very gradually. The best example is artillery shells. Media has predicted that Russia will run out of shells many times, but it doesn't happen of course, because thats not how the world works. They just reduce consumption. This reduction was not big enough for any media to even report.
What im trying to say is that there is very likely not going to be an event when Russia cracks. As sanctions are applied, workarounds are found. They have enough people by sheer numbers to at least defend the front for many years to come.