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China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there's nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it's not Normandy, there's sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn't have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it'll be Antoniv all over again.
The Taiwan government isn't trying to unify the "two Chinas" anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what's left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There's other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.
This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear's own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn't clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it's so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It's terrible that they're taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine... A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
https://www.newsweek.com/china-taiwan-blockade-invasion-us-navy-pacific-fleet-admiral-samuel-paparo-1749139
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_between_the_United_States_and_the_Republic_of_China
I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.
There isn't the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I'll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it's not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn't start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
So on that timeline we should've already been at WW3 for about a year now
We might already be.
WW2 wasn't yet a world war in 1939 either.
Both Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to spiral into wars involving players on all continents.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don't think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it's generated here.
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they're showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I'm not saying China wouldn't invade Taiwan, but I really don't think they're going to in the near future
The missile engines were being used to heat up pot noodle on cold days, so I completely understand the motivation of those remote PLA Airman
https://www.newsweek.com/china-air-force-cook-meals-missile-fuel-corruption-pla-officer-yao-cheng-1859319
To a more serious point, likely as not they'll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn't approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
https://www.38north.org/2024/06/the-russia-china-dprk-strategic-triangle-phantom-threat-or-geopolitical-reality/
Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn't invade until it actually happened
Pasted from my response to another post
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
There are rumors that Xi has been overthrown and is now only a figurehead.
I believe those have been debunked if I'm inferring that you're referencing the most recent of such rumors.
https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2024/07/fact-check-photo-does-not-show-china-president-xi-jinping-suffering-a-stroke-in-july-2024-image-is-from-march-2024.html
Let me know if that's not what you heard as I'm happy to be corrected.