MOSCOW, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Russia's ambassador to Washington said on Friday that he did not believe Ukraine would have attacked the Nord Stream gas pipelines without the tacit approval of the United States, and that Russia would identify and punish those behind the attack.

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[–] barsoap@lemm.ee -1 points 3 months ago

Russia wasn't sending any gas through NS1 at that point. Or at least thereabouts, remember those shenanigans around compressor turbines which were in repair and whatnot.

If you seriously, seriously think that Germany would risk an economic crash over pivoting away from Russia then I can't help you either. There might've been some unease over "will Germany actually side with Russia over fears about the economy" but that a) makes no economic sense and b) nope we don't just fuck over allies.

As to Handel durch Wandel: The whole thing cut both ways. The idea was to make war prohibitively costly by enmeshing economies -- and, indeed, Russia's economy is in the gutter. Ideally it would have made them not attack at all but a ruined Russian economy is a proper consolidation price. They e.g. can't produce ball bearings necessary for their trains, just as a random example of many: They became reliant on German products, a thing that non-enmeshment could never have achieved. The Soviet Union was self-sufficient in those areas, and Russia would still be had Germany not gone in and wiped key strategic Russian companies off the market.

And the other direction? The gas? Figures that that wasn't a dependency, at all. Maybe, maybe, after shit went down and we were able to see the actual impacts it would be prudent to re-evaluate past narratives, but, well, I can't force you.