I have responded in good faith to each of your criticisms. I have provided polling data when you asked. I have not once waffled.. what do you think that means, exactly?
I continue to await anyones data driven response to my initial question. "Why are we assuming that all of the third party votes would go to Harris if they were forced to choose between her and Trump?"
If you have no real input to add then just stop responding.
You're using an over-used debating technique where you cast doubt on others by demanding proof of any claims you don't like but letting statements you agree with stand unchallenged.
Actually what i'm doing is pointing out a glaring logical flaw in the article that is the subject of this post. The fact that others are willing to accept the conclusions drawn by the unsupported claim of this article is worrisome. It speaks to a lack of critical thinking and a wiillingness accept illogical arguments simply because they fit with ones world view. It is fairly absurd to me that i need to spell this out.
And i have reaponded to you elsewhere with plenty of data that supports me. Unfortunately no one else in this thread has attempted to do the same in support of the article's claim. Not one single person.
You're painting yourself as a neutral who is just asking for information, when in fact you're heavily partisan. It's misleading.
I would be entertained to hear how exactly you think i am partisan. I am, in fact, one of these braindead third party voters that everyone in this thread is raging against. About as far from a partisan as one can get.
And you, and everyone else here, has had ample time and opportunity to provide any bit of data that you like to show that i am wrong. But y'all consistently turn to attacks against me or my character instead. And that right there, my friend, is a true Trump tactic.
If you are right then show the data.
So you took the people who disapprove of trump, subtracted the republicans who disapprove of Trump, and the Democrats who disapprove of Trump, and then you went ahead and said that the remaining ones are all Republican?
No.
I took the total percent of voters who disapprove of Trump (52.5%) and subtracted the percent of those voters who are Democrats (49%). The remaining 3.5% is therefore the percentage of voters who disapprove of Trump who are not Democrats.
I then showed that there are a full 8.5% of voters who are Republicans that dissapprove of Trump, therefore refuting the claim the the 3% of voters who are not Dem or Rep must all dissaprove of Trump.
My math is just fine, thank you. You just don't like the answer.
third party voters are some homogenous bloc of disenfranchised "not Trump" voters.
This is what i said "no" to.
And again, the burden is not on me. I am notthe one using unsupported claims to support a conclusion. That's the author of the article doing that. But you know what? Just for fun, i will do what not one single other commentor has done. I WILL give you some data. Maybe by me doing so, some others can see how it is done and can provide some data of their own instead of resorting to personal attacks and speculation to support their beliefs.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ 52.5% Trump's disapproval among both parties.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/ 80.4% Trump's favorability among Republicans. 17.8% unfavorable.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/ Republicans account for 48% of registered voters. Dems 49%.
So, 17.8% (unfavorable) of 48% (Republicans) means that 8.5% of the registered voting population is, in fact, Republicans who dissaprove of Trump.
Now let's look at the 52.5% of the registered voting population who dissaprove of Trump. Assuming that all Democrats (49%) dissaprove of him, we only need to find another 3.5% somewhere. You COULD look to the 3% of the registered voters who are presumably registered third party or independent. But you should be looking at the other group, whom we already know to dissaprove of Trump, and which is nearly three times (8.5%) larger than third party voters. That would be the Republicans themselves.
If you or anyone else would care to explain how this data points to third party voters unanimously preferring Harris over Trump, or would like to provide some other data to support that claim, then please do. I am all ears.
I am not saying it's absurd. I am asking for data.
I mean, i'd like to believe that you make that case in good faith. But you have to realize that third party voters are admonished by the status quo voters every single presidential election. Every one. So, while this may be the first time you personally have argued that a third partier should vote for your candidate, third partiers have heard it over and over again. You know all those other elections that didn't have a Trump in them? Yeah, we heard it then too. So, i'm sorry but the whole "this is the most important election in history" schtick just doesn't warrant any consideration when you're hearing it for the umpteenth time.
You're not paying attention at all. I am not the one making an argument. This article is making an argument. This article makes no attempt to support it's claims with any evidence. I am bringing that deficit to light and asking that you, the article authors, or anyone else provide some backing for the claim it makes. That's just how logical debate is done. There's an awful lot of people in this thread ready to argue, throw mud, brush me off..pretty much everything except provide the proof i have asked for.
If anyone is blindly following an argument without any logical backing then i'd implore them dig a little further. If you feel that there is some obvious support for the claims the article makes that i am simply ignoring, then, by all means, shut me up by pointing towards the data.
That depends entirely on the impact you hope to achieve. I am under no dilusion that my choice will win in 2024. That is not the purpose of my third party vote.
I find it to be quite the opposite.
Thats not how this works. The one making the claim provides some evidence. The article makes an unsubstantianted claim that the 3rd party voters are all Harris > Trump. I asked for some sort of proof of this. And you have responded by asking me for proof refuting their claim. Burden of proof is not on me. I am just asking you, or anyone else to back up these claims, because the authors did not
Don't use being on the spectrum as an insult. It is unbecoming.
I don't think hypothetical means what you think it means. Either that or you are misunderstanding or misrepresenting what the article is arguing.
The article is implies that 3rd party voters are all Harris > Trump voters if it came down to a choice between the two. That is not a hypothetical, that is an unsubstantianted assumption.
So now it's sarcastic tirade and more personal attacks. Ok, you hold your end of the conversation the way you like. I'll attempt to continue to be respectful and stick to a logical discussion. You're welcome to join me there.
No, i am not voting for Trump. I find him to be repulsive and dangerous. I am, in fact, one of those third partiers that you and most others here seem to think define all third partiers. That is to say that if i were forced to choose between Kamala and Donald i would choose the former. But i am not all third partiers. I happen to understand that third partiers are, like all political subdivisions, a nuanced group. More nuanced than most since we have taken everything from communists to anarcho-capitaliats to environmentalists and thrown them into one catch all group.
I am pleased that you have now taken the requisite time to understand the math. But a tongue in cheek mischaracterization of my stance does not refute the math or advance your case (whatever that might actually be; at this point i'm fairly convinced that your only stance is attempting to discredit me).
I never claimed this. Instead i claim that the 8.5% of voters who are Trump-hating Republicans is more than enough to account for at least 2% of total voters who are non-Democrat Trump Haters. For if 2% out of the 3.5% non-Democrat Trump haters are Republican, then only 1.5% can be third partiers. And, since 1.5% is half of all the third partiers (3%), then if greater than 2% of total voters are Trump hating Republicans the article is debunked.
So all i need is less than one quarter of the anti-Trump Republicans to remain anti-Trump in a national all-voter poll and the implication is that third party voters do not swing Democratic.
Now, look, there are some perfectly valid arguments against this. You could claim that disapproving of Trump in an all Republican poll somehow doesn't translate to disapproving of Trump in an all-voter poll. Or you could show that in-party and/or out-of-party disapproval ratings do not translate to negative voting booth results. Maybe you could provide polling that uses some other mteric. Or, heck, maybe you could find a poll that polls only third party voters directly and thus silences all debate in one fell swoop. I would welcome any of these results. I am not interested in my current stance being proven correct. I am interested in the correct stance being borne out with evidence.
I still patiently await any amount of data that proves me wrong.