Other direct quote:
Some officials briefed on the intelligence said that it was relatively weak and that the Energy Department’s conclusion was made with “low confidence”
An article from a well-respected journal: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(24)00206-4/fulltext.
It really seems like the evidence points towards natural origins. And the article you linked doesn’t actually have the evidence, it only waves toward the existence of classified intelligence.
Someone else posted that link as well, see my response: https://midwest.social/comment/11853764.
Having a PhD doesn’t automatically make someone a reliable source, and the site it is published on isn’t exactly a respected journal.