benjhm

joined 1 year ago
[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 weeks ago

It's useful to systematically compare the quantitative impact of policies across countries. However the headline does no credit to the analysis. What matters is the fraction of emissions that are reduced, not the fraction of policies. Probably just a few big policies in a few big countries make most of the difference. Many smaller developing countries were recently obliged (by Paris NDC process) to state some kind of policies, but they are still in an early stage of the learning by doing process - which is still valuable.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 weeks ago

Aucune réservation obligatoire (hors international) en Belgique, Suisse, Allemagne, Grand-Bretagne ... Cette proposition est ridicule, on pousse les gens au voiture. Et la France avait si bon système de chemin de fer, avant qu'ils ont essayé copier l'aviation.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 17 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

Ireland has a long coastline but most of it near mountains, so there is fortunately scope to gradually retreat uphill. The large flat part is in the middle - the central Shannon basin is only 35m above sea-level, but unless East Antarctica goes too, that's safe for the moment. As for temperature rise, it's a cool country that may expect relatively little warming, due to the cold blob south of greenland, at least while ice continues melting. So, Ireland may need to prepare for large influx of people escaping heat elsewhere.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 weeks ago

It's good ES add this route to the network, and the route fits with their other operations.
However, it's a long way around. I remember when there was a train every night from Brussels to Milano, sometimes extending to Venice, via Namur, Luxembourg, Basel, Bern, Brig. That old straighter route would be more efficient, and reconnect people who currently have no night train south.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 weeks ago

Vietnam is such a long-thin country, high quality rail infrastructure really makes sense given such a geography. I hope they connect their network west too, to other south-east asian countries, such network could also help to balance the development negotiations.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 weeks ago

Interesting discussion. 'Quit while ahead' sounds obvious with hindsight, but who can say when a peak has been reached during events, and who, in such movements, would have the authority to impose that on others ? What could China learn from other countries ? For example, rapid student-led change in Bangladesh recently.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 weeks ago

What better times? They'll be competing with more solar and wind every year (also fewer people).

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 weeks ago

I think it makes sense. China also has a housing surplus, loads of infrastructure, plenty of educated graduates, and great diversity of climate (therefore resilience to that problem), but will lack young people to help with services. The first generation will feel discrimination (even europeans who've worked there know the laowai feeling) but attitudes could gradually change for their children.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 month ago

Key message remains that methane is "the strongest lever we can quickly pull to reduce warming".
It's not runaway, but there is a positive feedback of methane increasing its own lifetime by using up atmospheric oxidising capacity. I note also, new to me - "an increase in decomposition rates from wetlands as higher temperatures interacted with La Niña conditions in the tropics" - so during El Niño we get more CO2 from forest fires, but during La Niña more CH4 ... - how to lock-in that carbon ? I also wonder how much methane is coming from Russia recently, whose government cares the least of all.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 1 month ago

Stability is indeed a strength of EU - effectively averaging over all the countries smooths over political oscillations - which is useful for tackling long-term policy problems (like climate). I'm not advocating majoritarian voting where 51% overrides 49%. However with ± 30 countries, one or two should not block the rest - the current system leads to transactional brinkmanship where the last hold-outs get some prize in return for postponed obstruction. I've seen similar (worse) problems in UN climate negotiations - also due to "consensus" principle.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Moi j'ai fait du vin ici en wallonie - 50 bouteilles en 2023 avec seulement trois vignes - un grimpant sur la facade de ma maison, les autres pendant entre arbres at bambous, donc ils prennent peut d'espace et donnent de l'ombre fraiche en été.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 1 month ago

Interesting - especially regarding the linguistic isolation factor, making it easy to dominate media.
Although even among many similar slavic languages, I wonder how many people are listening to other country's media. And if we look at other isolated languages in Europe, eg. Finland, Basque, Albania, it's hard to see a pattern in political consequences.

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