arirr

You mean a unified state? I interpreted the question as explicitly a Palestinian one, so assuming a 2 state solution. A unified state with constitutional protections may work too, although it would take a lot of trust that I don't think really exists right now. It may still happen though via simple amexation and naturalization by Israel. It's what happened with the Palestinians remaining in Israel after the 48 war hence about a 20% Palestinian Israeli population today.

I'm happy to hear that I was helpful. I'm not any sort of expert, but a lot of this is basic state building. Add to that that the Palestinians actually have pretty high rates of education, already have access to a stable currency, and a regional power that they're already integrated with, they really have a leg up on most other countries starting out. The main sticking points are leadership, radicalization, and external forces like the IRGC backing terrorist groups.

As time goes on I really see this winding down one way or another in a couple decades. In 1948 basically the entire Arab world supported the Palestinians both directly and indirectly against Israel. Now Egypt and Jordan both have peace treaties and increasing economic ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia is coming onboard and the UAE and Bahrain already signed the Abraham accords. Palestinian maximalist goals look more and more unreasonable. Hamas hoped that their attack would trigger a whole regional war against Israel. It didn't, just IRGC proxies joined in. It didn't even put a stop to Saudi normalization, just delayed it a bit.

For the Israel side of it, there is more international pressure than ever to resolve this. The only hard dealbreaker IMO is keeping Hamas around in power. I just don't see any other way that has historically worked to remove a fascist regime than force. See the Whispered in Gaza series for what life is like under Hamas. Now we just need a good Palestinian leader to actually push building a positive future or Israel may just say screwed it, I'll do it myself, which would probably include annexation and citizenship.

I'm going to assume that this has to be at least somewhat realistic as opposed to something like 67 borders and a peaceful democratic state where we're all happy with free movement and work for everyone with Israel.

I would probably start with taking a deal, probably wait until the next Israeli government, try to get as much land as possible and maybe even see about purchasing some from the other countries like Egypt that's unpopulated or barely populated. In exchange I would probably have to agree let the IDF in to fight the various terrorists groups that currently exist which would be to my benefit because they would be trying to kill me too. In fact, I would leverage the desire for a stable Palestine to get as much Israeli involvement as possible. I would negotiate reperations for the suffering that my people went through and request all the international money to be transferred to the new government. This will be used to improve living conditions for everyone first and foremost. There would also have to be a high amount of transparency to keep trust.

Then I would have to figure out how to sort out the various clans which wouldn't want to give up power. I would probably try creating some sort of Parliament with representatives from all the major clans and even try to get all the minor clans in. I wouldn't turn power over to them off the bat, but I would let then be involved in decision making processes to start with and hard commitments to turn over power later. They probably won't trust me, but I still have all the power and they get to watch me keep my word for a few years to hopefully build trust.

I then tackle the housing crisis and start several social programs to reduce poverty with my big pile of reperation money. Around this time I declare full right of return for Palestinian diaspora. Construction would also generate a bunch of jobs. I would completely reform the education system to be child oriented and also remove all the anti-semitic garbage. History especially would focus on the positives of having a state and being able to succeed on our own land as the Palestinian people. Child abuse and especially honor killings would be cracked down upon along with a full commitment to universal human rights. It would be a slow process to change the culture, but it's doable.

A lot of Palestinians already have jobs in Israel and I would work directly with Israel to make sure they they don't loose those and even create a government office to coordinate job opportunities across the boarder both ways. De-radicalization on both sides will be greatly helped by just experiencing each other as reasonable people. There are also plenty of left wing Israeli NGOs that would be happy to help. I would also piggyback off of Israel's vibrant tech and medical sectors to utilize my already highly educated population to build out our own too.

As time goes on and I deliver on promises, I can start turning over power to Parliament and declare elections for the members. The clans wouldn't want to be voted out, so I would sell it to them as increasing their legitimacy now that they're getting power and then support their campaigns to get them officially elected. Now that I've generated some reasonable stability for several years and the Israeli government starts to relax a bit, I start building out my own security forces and even doing joint exercises to build trust.

After probably about 20 years, I'll have been able to build Palestinian nationalism to the point that they're proud of their country and participate and demand a Democratic government which I'm delivering on. There will always be radicals, but they should be minimal and joint Intel sharing with Israel should help keep the bulk of them from committing any atrocities.

The end

I don't think that this is particularly likely to happen, but it may be doable with good Palestinian leadership. Some of the most likely outcomes at this point is probably annexation and naturalization of the West Bank and its Palestinians and either the same with Gaza or a small standalone state. Another idea that may work well would be the eight state solution where the majors clans would be given territory directly and would be able to form the Palestinian Emirates like the UAE. Overall I very much agree with Standing Together's stance of "We're both not going anywhere, so we have to learn to coexist." and am hopeful that it will some day happen one way or another.

A couple points: Hamas doesn't just want back the land that was stolen during the Nakba. They consider all the land including state land and even privately purchased land by Jews from before the war to be Arab land. They reject wholesale any Jewish self determination in the land as illegitimate. This is why Israel is refusing to sign a deal that leaves them in power, because that just kicks the can down the road for a bit.

Hamas even put a plan together of what to do if they win and it boiled down to: murdering all the Zionists, enslaving key talent to prevent total economic collapse, and then throw the rest out. Since they are a totalitarian fascist regime, I don't see how they can ever be negotiated with in good faith. I'm not aware of a single fascist regime that peacefully democratized or even stopped committing violence.

I don't agree that Netanyahu is genocidal. His general strategy seems to be crushing opposition through tactical maneuvering both internal and external. I also don't expect him to be very politically relevant once his fragile coalition falls apart or regularly scheduled elections happen in 2026. According to John Spencer and other urban warfare experts the civilian casualties are impressively low considering the environment and Hamas's tactics. That's not to be dismissive as all civilian casualties are tragic and should be avoided as much as possible. Also about 20% of Israeli citizens are Palestinian.

I would love to see a reasonable 2 state solution that everyone hates, but can live with. I don't think that this Israeli government coalition would be willing to accept one, but I have pretty good hopes for future ones. My main concern is on the Palestinian side, there doesn't seem to be anyone that would both be able to afford to make a deal and be able to enforce it. The closest chance there was historically would probably have been the Camp David Summit. Currently Abbas and the PA are seen as too weak and corrupt IMO for the general Palestinian population to support it even if they did accept.

I don't see how any US president would be able to unilaterally force a 2 state solution. The US does provide a lot of support, but I don't see how leveraging that would be enough to override Israeli security concerns. The unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 is what enabled Hamas to take over and declare war on Israel leading eventually to the current situation. Allowing that kind of buildup in the West Bank would be far more dangerous as is is much closer to major population centers and has a much larger boarder. Israel didn't have major US support until the Yom Kippur war.

On top of that, there is the whole IRGC issue. They don't want any solution. They're happy to arm proxy groups that are willing to support their agenda. That makes any peaceful Palestinian government that's trying to suppress internal terrorist groups have even more to deal with and it would probably end up in a Syrian or Yemen civil war situation which would be way worse for everyone, especially the Palestinians.

I had a user ask us to solve her problems slower because it made her feel stupid when we solved them immediately.

Sigh I hate getting into it on social media, but this is just blatantly untrue.

Hamas has shown just how brutal they are willing to be the past few days and they explicitly have in their charter the destruction of Israel. Hamas given the chance would absolutely ethically cleanse all of the Levant of Jews. The PLO has a martyr fund for dying while killing Israelis. Israel not fighting would absolutely lead to complete destruction.

On the other hand, if Israel wanted to, it could completely wipe out any and all Palestinian areas. Palestine has no real air force, navy, or artillery and wouldn't be able to stop them. The only reason Israel hasn't done so is they have decided not to.

This isn't commentary on the entire conflict or the history or who is right/wrong. I'm just pointing out that this is factually incorrect.