I agree with you. My thinking is, as a politically active person who is around politically active people from all over the spectrum, that no one has really heard from Trump in the past 3 years, besides the ones that wanted too. I've heard his voice maybe 10 times? Heard about him, of course, but not from him.
While the debate was an absolute shitshow, Trump was Trump. He reminded everyone for 90 minutes what it was like to have him in every room, on every channel, at every dinner table, and in every conversation. Undecideds are who they are, but they didn't like that in 2020 when they voted for Biden. People's memories are short and I think they forgot how terrible he was.
SCOTUS can't do shit for state charges. Doesn't mean they won't try.
However, His legal team will argue literally any punishment is too harsh and appeal the NY state charges, which will be granted because he was a president and has money. Then it will be delayed past the election and not matter anyway because this system is not made to resist willful destruction by those entrusted to protect it.
Edit: Turns out they can. The NY prosecution has agreed to postpone charges less than a day after the ruling. Trump's team asserts that the criminal activities occurred before he was president, but since the evidence was gathered during, he can not be prosecuted. Apparently concealing evidence unrelated to the presidency is an official act...