this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2024
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I don't like the clickbait title at all -- Mastodon's clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn't surprise me if it outlives Xitter.

Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn't stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.

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[–] acosmichippo@lemmy.world 42 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

i have a mastodon account but it’s completely useless for me.

the only thing i use twitter for is to follow updates and news from professional journalists and artists who are not on mastodon and likely will never be. if your job depends on twitter, switching to mastodon is not going to happen.

if i want to engage with random average people, i come here to lemmy.

[–] Cyno@programming.dev 8 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (2 children)

I have a mastodon account, I still check it occasionally and I've tried making it work a year ago, being active on it and following either people or hashtags. I also tried other networks like bsky and cara, or mastodon through kbin integration. None of them really worked out.

I didn't have an issue with the technical side as much as with the community and its mentality. They all have this persecution complex where everyone is out to get them and destroy their way of living. They simultaneously claim it's better and more morally superior than twitter while also responding to any questions or feedback with "if you don't like it GTFO". Most of the posts I've seen on mastodon seemed masturbatory and/or talking about other social networks and why are they bad than why is mastodon actually good. In many ways it was more toxic and negative than my carefully curated twitter feed. There's also as much doom and gloom as on twitter, if not more, when it comes to politics (or at least, it's harder to hide it).

The content in general was bad and boring but I don't know if this is because of the type of people that are on it or just because the lack of algorithm means I will see any random person's ramblings next to the biggest breaking news that I'm actually interested in. There is a lack of innovation in this area and it makes discoverability and content curation terrible, I don't need an algorithm to read my mind but at the very least I wish it could separate trash from actual popular topics.

I found some interesting niches when it comes to FOSS developers and tech but I found next to no actual game devs, artists or content creators on it and even the usual "copy content from twitter" bots were unreliable and uncommon.

TL;DR Mastodon seems very very niche and is not currently viable as a general replacement for other social networks, and IMHO due to the community culture there it's never going to grow into anything else either.

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[–] matengor@lemmy.ml 9 points 16 hours ago

While I agree with the article and a lot of comments, I am still active on my Mastodon account and I am enjoying it more than ever.

Disclaimer: I'm a white male westerner working in IT. 😉

A friend of mine works in linguistics and education. He was an avid Twitter user and has since migrated to Bluesky and Mastodon. He says, Mastodon is quite complex and clunky but on Bluesky there's not much happening in his bubble.

For me, the quality of the conversation and the regional character of my local instance is a big plus on Madison. On Lemmy, I read a lot on international and tech topics, but on Mastodon, the conversation is related more to my countries politics and my region.

So, maybe they lost a lot of users. But the 14% that stayed are a good start for quite a vivid community.

If anyone has questions on how to get something out of Mastodon, ask away or follow me here: mateng@nrw.social.

[–] jimmy90@lemmy.world 8 points 16 hours ago

i wish Lemmy would embrace Mastodon and make it easy for Lemmy users to join that network

[–] djidane535@sh.itjust.works 8 points 17 hours ago (2 children)

I tried to replace Twitter by Mastodon but, in the end, I just left Twitter and don’t use Mastodon at all. The main reason I think is because the « onboarding » is painful. I never succeeded to find interesting people to follow. I faced many ghost accounts from people posting once a month or stopped a few years ago.

If you don’t find people by yourself, no one is going to see your posts and so, you won’t be able to find new people to follow by posting.

I don’t like what Twitter became, but the base principle of the algorithm (before it became X with the paid subscriptions) was working great for me. I was constantly adding new people to the mix, and removing inactive ones every month.

If I struggled this much with Mastodon, I am not surprised many people create an account and leave a few days / weeks later.

[–] Anderenortsfalsch@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

I tried to replace Twitter by Mastodon but, in the end, I just left Twitter and don’t use Mastodon at all.

This is me, I left Twitter, Facebook and Reddit. I reduced my online time a lot and it is better for my mental health and I have more time for my hobbies.

Mastodon made it clear to me how much algorithms steer me and keep me online, when I don't need that, don't profit from it. When I had to search for content on Mastodon that was for me it felt not worth the effort while being fed by an algorithm on Twitter /Facebook / Reddit kept me endlessly scrolling.

So I am very thankful to Mastodon for opening my eyes, but I will not use it anymore. Tchncs (world news, tech news and ~~cat~~ owl pictures) , Grouvee (gaming forum, keeping track of my games) and German Tagesschau ( tv news of my country) is enough to stay up to date and I feel freed from a burden that social media became for me.

Also my phone stays in my bag now and I am more in the moment wherever I am - I have used it 99% less than before and my next smart phone will be a cheap one with the only must haves being the newest Android version and a replacable battery so it will last me for long.

[–] Cyno@programming.dev 3 points 15 hours ago

Similar experience here. I have a nicely curated list of people I follow on twitter, they often retweet other users that are similar and I have a nice feed of good content that slowly grows without ever running into toxic assholes. On mastodon I couldn't get anywhere close to that no matter how much I tried.

[–] lvxferre@mander.xyz 10 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago) (3 children)

Let's see:

Network effect hits Mastodon specially hard as it competes not just with Twitter, but also Threads and Bluesky. In those situations, a smaller userbase means that people will outright ignore you as an option.

The way that federation was implemented; as linearchaos mentioned in another thread, if you settle in a smaller instance (the "right" thing to do), you won't get "good collections of off node traffic". So it creates a situation where, if you know how federation works you'll avoid big instances, and worsen your own experience; and if you don't, well, Mastodon's big selling point goes down the drain.

Federation itself introduces a complexity cost. That's unavoidable and the benefits of federation outweigh the cost by far; however, the cost is concrete while the bigger benefit is far more abstract.

Branding issues. Other users already mentioned it, but you don't sell a novel tech named after an extinct animal.

And this is just conjecture from my part, but I think that microblogging is becoming less popular than it used to be; people who like short content would rather go watch a TikTok video, and people who want well-thought content already would rather read a "proper" blog instead.

On a lighter side: the very fact that we're using the ActivityPub now helps Mastodon, even if we're in different platforms (like Lemmy, MBin, PieFed, SubLinks). Due to how federation works, you're bound to see someone in Mastodon sharing content with those forums and vice versa; it could be a bit less clunky but it's still more content for both sides.

On the text: I think that the author reached the right conclusion through the wrong reasoning. The activity peaks don't matter that much, when there's a huge influx of users you're bound to see some leaving five minutes later. The reason why Mastodon is struggling is this:

Source of the data.

See those slopes down? They show that the stable userbase is shrinking. Even users engaged enough with the platform are slowly leaving, but newbies who could fill their place aren't popping up.

[–] halm@leminal.space 3 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

you don’t sell a novel tech named after an extinct animal

They didn't, Mastodon is named after the metal band (which is named after the extinct animal) 🙂

Either way, back in 2008 I bet people were making fun of Twitter for being named after bird sounds, so.

[–] lvxferre@mander.xyz 2 points 12 hours ago

I wasn't aware of the connection with the band - thanks for the info! Still, people are bound to associate "mastodon" first and foremost with the critter.

Either way, back in 2008 I bet people were making fun of Twitter for being named after bird sounds, so.

I don't remember but you're likely correct. There's a difference though - Twitter didn't need to capitalise on every single tiny advantage, Mastodon does it, and while the role of branding might be small it still gives you (or your competitors) some edge.

[–] stoy@lemmy.zip 2 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

I disagree with your and the author's conclusions.

I have made my own long comment about it in thread, so here I am going to focus on your chart.

First, I will accept the data of the chart at face value, it seems resonably accurate and I don't have any other data to work off of.

My point is that you are interpreting it wrong.

To me the declining slopes after the sruges are not relevant to any long term conclusions, they follow a highly predictable curve and doesn't mean much.

If you look at the end of the graphs you can even see it growing slightly, that is obviously not evidence of anything yet, but to me it is an indication of either a start of another surge, or stability.

I believe you are too quick at spreading doom for Mastodon, give it half a year and look at the stats then, we won't see a meteoric rise of active users any time soon, just accept it and work with more realistic expectations.

[–] lvxferre@mander.xyz 2 points 16 hours ago (4 children)

First, I will accept the data of the chart at face value, it seems resonably accurate and I don’t have any other data to work off of.

If you do find another source of data, please post it. Relying on a single source (like the Fediverse Observer) is problematic, I know.

To me the declining slopes after the sruges are not relevant to any long term conclusions, they follow a highly predictable curve and doesn’t mean much.

You're conflating the sharp drops after the surges with the declining slopes.

The sharp drops (like MAU from 12/2022 to 02/2023) go as you said, they don't mean much. However, the declining slopes are relevant - they span across multiple months (up to ten), and show that Mastodon userbase has a consistent tendency to shrink.

If you look at the end of the graphs you can even see it growing slightly, that is obviously not evidence of anything yet, but to me it is an indication of either a start of another surge, or stability.

We'll only know if it's an indication of a surge (sudden influx of new users), or growth (slow influx), or stability in the future. For now it's an isolated data point.

I believe you are too quick at spreading doom for Mastodon

I'm saying that Mastodon is struggling. I did not say that Mastodon is doomed.

The difference is important here because a struggling network can be still saved, while a doomed one can't.

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[–] vxx@lemmy.world 1 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (1 children)

Half the users of the initial peek are still active?

Doesn't sound too bad if there would be events that bring new users from time to time.

[–] lvxferre@mander.xyz 2 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

Yeah, the peaks themselves and the quick (~2m) drop after them are not the big deal. The big deal is to slowly bleed users. It's really problematic in the long term; by no means "MASTADON IS DOOMED!", but more like "Mastodon, you need to step your game up."

[–] 1984@lemmy.today 7 points 16 hours ago

Definently had the feeling of walking into a gay bar and not knowing anyone, like the article says.

I thought it was pretty cool personally because I never interact with gay people (afaik) in real life. And we have computer tech as a common interest, that's why we are on mastadon... But for people who are not into tech, I guess it's not so much to talk about maybe.

[–] Draegur@lemm.ee 21 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

because its name is Mastodon, something that when people google it pulls up a band.

Also because it's trying to be a hot fresh new thing but it's literally named after an animal that's extinct.

If it had a catchier and more unique name it probably would have caught on more.

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 28 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

I hear "Twitter" is available again

[–] Draegur@lemm.ee 2 points 11 hours ago

ZING!

And dipshit elon literally argued in court that "twitter doesn't exist anymore"

HMMM MAYBE SOMEBODY SHOULD INVENT IT

🤔

[–] Annoyed_Crabby@monyet.cc 10 points 18 hours ago

Yeah, lemmy suffered from this too, SEO is completely neglected when picking name.

[–] stardust@lemmy.ca 14 points 22 hours ago

I think because when it comes to Instagram or Twitter type social media more people probably use it only to follow accounts and have no interest in being involved in it. So closer to treating it like a rss reader than something like lemmy or reddit. And conversation feed sucks in general.

I use squawker for Twitter. Can't comment, like, sub, or whatever and account follows are just local feeds like Stealth for Reddit or NewPipe or Freetube. And that's all I need from it.

[–] Sunshine@lemmy.ca 2 points 14 hours ago

Mastodon is 10 years younger and has 0.24% of Twitter’s user-base.

They’re doing great!

[–] Carighan@lemmy.world 1 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

There's just not many people on there. And I already never used Twitter except to read in-time updates from people and companies, so naturally with many of them being on Threads or Bluesky, that's where I'd go to get that information.

I mean it's just normal to have a "social" part to social media, no?

[–] rbos@lemmy.ca 3 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

This is a baffling comment. There are tons of people on mastodon, more than I could ever hope to keep up with. I have a couple hundred accounts on follow and never manage to keep up. Honestly it could use some sorting.

[–] Carighan@lemmy.world 2 points 11 hours ago (3 children)

I don't want to follow random people though? Twitter was useful as a way to follow specific companies and people to know when say, a service goes down or an update is released.

These people and companies aren't on Mastodon.

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[–] Apytele@sh.itjust.works 7 points 20 hours ago (2 children)

Honestly my biggest issue is getting randomly banned from trans spaces for expressing my own lived experience with surgery and how I view my own body and gender. They're so "inclusive" that they start excluding people that don't use their very specific language or share their beliefs exactly. They keep kicking people out then wondering where all the people went!

[–] kitnaht@lemmy.world 10 points 19 hours ago

That's true of a lot of spaces who have been historically discriminated against. They become so hyper-aware of any criticism, that they immediately think anyone who has an experience different than their own is "the enemy".

[–] Drunemeton@lemmy.world 4 points 16 hours ago

You may have heard of Folsom Street Fair? The sex & kink positive, all-inclusive, world-famous, 2-day long, San Francisco street fair?

For the first time in over 2 decades of attending my husband and I were turned away from the new, unmarked, Trans & Non-Binary Gate & Safe Space because we weren’t, nor did we identify, as such.

[–] manuallybreathing@lemmy.ml 3 points 18 hours ago

I never liked the microblog format so while I've had acouple masto accounts since 2016 I never used it. But i also never used twitter.

[–] dragonfucker@lemmy.nz -1 points 10 hours ago (3 children)

Drag simply thinks microblogging is boring. Nobody has anything interesting to say and nobody smelled drag's toots.

[–] VaalaVasaVarde@sopuli.xyz 1 points 10 hours ago

Drag the destroyer of social media, please do Facebook next!

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