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Donald Trump’s order, which will come into effect on May 2, which will end the duty-free status of goods from China and Hong Kong under $800 in the United States, could fundamentally shake the American operations of Chinese e-commerce giants. In response to the shrinking market, companies – led by Shein, Temu and AliExpress – are expected to redirect their unsold stocks to Europe. This could have serious consequences for EU trade, industry and the budget.
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According to current EU regulations, imported small packages under the value threshold of 150 euros are duty-free. The French newspaper L’Express estimates that around 12 million such small packages arrive in the EU every day, worth a total of €4.6 billion a year. The fact that around 65% of packages are deliberately undervalued helps to circumvent customs borders. The trend is already visible in France: according to the CEO of La Poste, one in four packages arriving comes from the Shein or Temu platforms.
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In response to the expected import pressure, the European Commission has set up a monitoring task force to monitor early signs of a Chinese parcel tsunami. Olof Gill, the Commission’s customs spokesman, confirmed that if it is proven that the increasing imports are causing industrial damage, they are ready to introduce protective measures – such as safeguard duties or quotas. The French economy ministry is particularly active in calling for a swift response, stressing that Europe should not bear the consequences of US political decisions.