I did support Carney and I hope he does good things, and I don't think the following scenario would occur but I realize this belief is entirely based on my judgement of Carney's character which could be wrong.
I was thinking about the proposed gas pipeline to the east coast. If Carney hopes to be re-elected, he can't ram a pipeline through Quebec using emergency powers if such exist. Or he'd lose his seats in QC. Instead he's gotta give significant concessions to QC, like ownership, high royalties, etc. Stuff that he and Blanchet can sell to the Quebecers. I think this is certainly possible for a gas pipeline.
But then the following disaster scenario occurred to me. He likely has significant Brookfield investments in that blind trust. He likely has a seat open on that board whenever he quits public service. What if he uses emergency powers to ram a whole bunch of infrastructure, through P3s, where the private partner retains ownership, and the partner is Brookfield. Do as many of those as possible, get kicked out of office and sit on Brookfield's board, that much richer, while we get saddled with an even angrier and vindicated CPC fascism.
Thoughts?
Edit: Thanks for wading into my election PTSD nightmare!
Thought it worth going through and pointing out the logical flaws in the disaster scenario.
Mainly, there are a number of false premises involved.
We don't know that. More importantly, he doesn't know that. A blind trust is supposed to be blind, which means that he doesn't know if these have since been sold and replaced.
Without knowing that the blind trust does in fact own the investments to any particular degree of certainty, the odds of a move to benefit Brookfield specifically at the expense of others is reduced, probably significantly so.
I'm not sure how much Brookfield would be influenced by public opinion, but if Carney actually did this, he'd likely suffer greatly in terms of public opinion. Usually companies pay attention to this because failing to do so can hurt their pocketbooks (think things like public boycotts, such as folks refusing to buy gas at gas stations that are fueled by the pipeline).
I can't cite an authority on this but I strongly suspect that this would not be legal. And while I'm really uncertain about what legal remedies might ensure in this case, I strongly suspect both disgorgement and significant jail time would be on the table. And of course, being found a criminal by the Courts of Canada would make it that much harder for Brookfield to offer Carney that spot on the board.
Considering how much personal risk Carney may take on in doing this, I think this significantly reduces the chances he'd attempt this, even if he were inclined to do so (which hasn't been demonstrated imho).
This one displays a clear logical error - that of non sequiturs and false dichotomy. It doesn't automatically follow that, even if all of the above happened, that the CPC would be able to follow and push its current agenda. What if sympathy for Quebec after all this is so strong that PQ ends up with the leading role in a new coalition? Or former Liberals flee to the NDP, reviving it and granting it a majority?
Perhaps even the CPC may be so disgusted by this that they have a change of heart and reform. (I mean it's a hypothetical possibility.)
Also, wouldn't a minority Liberal government be risking a no-confidence vote for being so heavy handed?
Yeah, in a minority quite possibly. Unless the NDP is so weak and broke they can't afford an election. I was thinking about a majority scenario since there was still a path to it. That said Milton East-Halton Hills South and Nunavut resolved to CPC and NDP so I don't think a majority is possible anymore.
Yeah, most of that makes sense. Thanks!
I'm thinking about this as with the rest of the scenario inductively, and omitting some assumptions. All of what you suggest are plausible/likely possibilities, for sure. What makes me think that a strong CPC outcome is likely is that there was data from the weekend showing that CPC without a leader handily sweeps the election. So I assume they change PP for someone more likeable which puts them in a much stronger position, therefore likely to win if the Carney gov't doesn't execute well.
That's fair. But my point was that the new person they swap in could be someone who remakes the CPC into a more centrist or even leftist party. (Perhaps even someone who was a former Liberal Party member.) Not saying that's likely, just that it's another possibility that prevents the disaster scenario... (as opposed to someone like Danielle Smith taking the reins, which the disaster scenario requires).
Yep, ditto. Sounds like we're pretty much in agreement here.