I hate how “anti-war” has been hijacked by these people to mean, let imperialist countries invade whoever they want with no consequences. (in the case of tankies, any imperialist country that isn’t in NATO).
this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2024
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EDIT: lot of downvotes, no replies. I know I talk a lot about gaza in this comment, but that's just because that's something I know about. I'm way less informed about the Ukraine conflict. Ultimately this comment is just asking for what you believe and why you believe it, read the final sentence first.
I kind of tapped out on paying attention to this conflict, I'm already losing enough sleep over the genocide in Gaza.
With the conflict in Gaza, my opinion is that a ceasefire would be best, followed by an abolition of the apartheid state by means similar to how the one in SA was abolished (forced by global divestment like that enforced by 1986 US anti-apartheid act, etc). On a moral level, this solution feels unsatisfying. So much land has been stolen from the Palestinians, and part of me wants them to fight and win it all back, so advocating for a peaceful resolution hurts. But I also know that realistically, continuing to pursue armed conflict will only result in more Palestinian deaths, and more loss of territory, so I reluctantly join protests in favor of a ceasefire.
I realize that the conflicts are different. Russia is much more powerful than Israel, the Palestinian ethnic cleansing has been going on for decades, etc. So I don't know what to feel about the Ukraine conflict. The pro-peace POV I've already heard. Ceasefire, concede Crimea to Russia, Ukraine becomes non-NATO zone, and the killing stops. For the pro-war people in the Ukraine conflict, what are you hoping for, and what facts make you feel this hope is realistic?
The thing is sort of similar to the Gaza conflict. Who guarantees a ceasefire, who takes up arms to defend that ceasefire if necessary? Precisely there lies the difference. Russia is nuclear power and has veto power in the security counsel of the UN. Amy nation that were to guarantee Ukraine would inevitably get into a major conflict with Russia - a major military power. And because only Western nations are interested in guaranteeing Ukraine, if Russia were to violate the ceasefire - it would be immediately involve NATO and you'd have WW3. Now here's a point that is similar to the Gaza conflict. Russia has a track-record of violating all contracts and agreements they signed. There's the memorandum that forced Ukraine to return the nukes they had after the dissolution of the USSR- in return of sovereignty of Russia. There's a signed allowance of Russia for Ukraine to join NATO and the EU from the early 2000s. And more than I can recall from memory.
While it would technically be possible to force Israel to do what the US/EU wants, by many means. It would be difficult to force groups such as Hamas, Hisbollah, the Houthis to do anything without Iran backing and enforcing such a deal. Something I highly doubt to happen, without Iran losing all backing by other countries. No one can force Russia to do anything besides possibly China, which they won't. The US/NATO could as well, but that would mean direct military engagement, something everyone is desperate to avoid - because no one knows how sane Russian leadership would act in retaliation.
Frankly though I believe that all attempts to pacify the world right now are not in the interest of neither the parties in the Gaza conflict as well as Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. They are clearly showing over and over again with their hybrid warfare that any and all attempts at a peaceful solution would necessitate a believable threat of the US to actually dismantle the entire Russian military.