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May I suggest you take a moment to consider the scenario from Russia's perspective.
Now, both scenarios would be devastating for everyone involved. But the point I'm getting at here is that both scenarios end with Google maps updating to read to "The smoking crater formerly known as Russia".
Putin is not a suicide bomber. He's not doing this out of some ideological devotion to a cause. He's a thinking human being whose primary goals are to be alive and be in charge of a powerful nation. Starting a war with NATO, even a conventional war, guarantees him losing at least one of those things, and almost certainly both.
Conversely, the war in Ukraine is not, ultimately, a threat to the survival of Russia, and is only politically a threat to Putin's personal survival. He can choose to end that war whenever he wants to. It might mean handing back all the Ukrainian territory he's taken, but there's no way Ukraine wouldn't accept that deal in a heartbeat.
There is no scenario where a war with NATO benefits Putin or the people around him in any way, shape or form, and they absolutely know this.
On the other hand, threatening war is highly beneficial, because it scares people into behaving irrationally. Threatening nuclear war is especially effective because it draws on decades of cold war anxieties.
But these threats are hollow. They have no way to follow through on them that doesn't guarantee their total annihilation. And first and foremost, their goal is to not be annihilated.