I'm feeling so uneasy with everything I've been seeing. I keep thinking about what we will be this time next year, and if shit hits the fan, what is your plan? I'm queer and was politically active in 2020, so I would potentially be considered a political enemy.
The only blueprint I can think of is what you do in an active shooter situation; Flee, Hide, Fight.
I know there's that romantic notion of "don't be a coward, get out and protest", but I remember the brutality of the 2020 protests firsthand, and even then I thought "thank god I'm going toe to toe with the CPD and not the CCP". Next time is going to be different. The president now has authority to send drone strikes. Protests and riots don't stand a chance agains missiles and live rounds.
Flee- I have an Uncle in Montreal who my family could potentially use as a way to at least temporarily escape the chaos. The hope I'd have is that Canada and other countries would accept American refugees, however that's not a guarantee.
Hide- If borders are closed, lay low and move away from major cities if possible. If civil war breaks out, try to get away from the violence even if you think your side will win. Todays losers may be tomorrows victors.
Fight- If cellular data/ social media algorithms can keep track of you, and surveillance can make sure there's no movement, this would be the last resort of desperation. I guess if possible try to either find a group for safety in numbers, or conversely go guerrilla as groups of resistance would make easy targets.
Sorry my mind is running and I'm getting scared.
Civilians with guns against an actual military would never work, it's just some fantasy those on the far right have.
It doesn't seem like you've read much about insurgencies and rebel groups. It doesn't actually take much firepower to inject enough chaos into the system that you cause issues with traditional militaries. One person with a rifle could keep a FOB alert and wasting resources for a couple of hours in Afghanistan. IEDs placed by individuals or small groups caused absolute terror in Iraq.
These types of things are unlikely to "win" a war. But if you make it costly enough, the other side will decide it's not worth fighting. The point is not to engage in head-on combat, that's suicide.
Or hell, look to the tactics of some of the rebels in the Revolutionary War or the Civil War.
Yes, I understand how an occupied enemy force is hard to dislodge. I actually was in the USMC for 8 years and was stuck in 29 Palms with nothing to do it in the middle of the desert but operation Mojave Viper over and over as groups cycled through. War in the middle east was hard because of ROI and a lower tolerance for collateral damage. You remove those and it's not even a question. Just drop bombs and roll tanks.
I've also seen how we can take over a country or city in a matter of nights. I've seen buildings leveled because there was a singular shooter in them. If you roll APCs down a street with an armed patrol squad there isn't much you can do. Sure you could make IDEs, setup daisy chains and such, that could take out a patrol for sure. But that just gets a bigger, more aggressive response that will not be so easily pushed back.
And let's be clear, the middle east has been at war for generations upon generations, it's part of their life at this point. Bill who hunts deer sometimes is not a battle hardened fighter. Hell, people who sign up for war, get training, then ramped up for deployment still freeze up in combat.
Also, civil war tactics don't work anymore, hell,guerilla tactics barley work. We have drones, night vision, thermal, air support, satellite imagery. If the US military did actually attack it's people, and members of the service actual did comply, it would be an extermination not a war.
To your point about one person looking out for a FOB. First, I don't know how one person is covering every possible line of attack and approach vector, but that side. One drone or fly by could destroy that entire rebel FOB in second with not a damn thing you could do, with no warning. What is your defense against fighter jets or a blackhawk? Shoot small arms at it?
Sure, if they're willing to just destroy everything then it's less of a solid tactic. Will the American military be so willing to just destroy the places they grew up in? Perhaps. Will they be willing to shoot the neighbor they grew up playing with? Perhaps. Will they be willing to level the school they have so many fond memories of? Perhaps. And if so, then yes, that's game over.
The US military has historically been pretty terrible when it comes to insurgencies. But obviously they haven't been fighting in their own backyard.
It'll be interesting either way. I sure hope it doesn't come to pass.