this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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Honestly, this is a no-brainer from Taiwan's POV. The second our economies can get by without Taiwan is the second various governments start questioning whether it's worth it to ally with them, especially with China trying to undermine Taiwan and anybody who supports them all they can.
In a bizarre way, semiconductor manufacturing for Taiwan has become like nuclear weapons are for other countries.
They've made themselves effectively uninvadable because doing so would be an absolute catastrophe for everyone else, including the aggressor.
It's shocking how much it lines up with MAD doctrine, yet in a completely non-lethal way.
I want advanced semiconductor manufacturing to be less centralised, but Taiwan would be foolish to give up this leverage and security.
Plus all the MAGA dorks that'll be in charge keep talking about cancelling the CHIPS Act which probably impacts decision making...
It's pretty wild...my company recently spent 2.5 billion for fab upgrade, spent the money, and applied for chips act money about a year into the process. As far as I know we haven't received any yet and I hope it goes through because I'm sure a lot of good and honest people will lose their jobs if the company needs to find whatever Chips act was gonna pay.
They don't call TSMC Taiwan's silicon shield for nothing.
How is it that no one else anywhere is able to replicate this fabrication process?
It is extremely complex, requires half a dozen countries just to do, and requires incredible education and extremely long work hours.
Why does it require long work hours?
Because in the country where they have the process actually existing, in the company that has the process actually existing, the culture of said country applies. Which means despotism, corporate fanaticism and long work hours.
And so no other country can do it because of that. Got it. ☑️
They'll likely want specialists from the one that does. Hence the culture.
I wonder what kind of securities Taiwan needs in order to bargain with china about it.
Joining NATO, being able to be officially recognised as a sovereign country without immediate sanctions by China against whoever did that? Permanent stationing of western troops?
I feel as if China giving up the claim to Taiwan in exchange for Taiwan's product capabilities to be made available within the mainland China would lead to China becoming the new global superpower for sure.
Their security guarantees involve “we will melt our chip foundries to slag if the PRC invades”. That’s not a joke. That’s an official element of their strategic defense policy. They are pointedly tying the bleeding edge of semiconductor manufacturing - which corresponds to a very fucking big chunk of the global economy - to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. And it’s frankly an extremely shrewd policy.
I haven't kept up. Are they still 10 years ahead of their competitors? I know they had better yields than, let's say, Samsung.
Even intel is using TSMC for their latest 200 series chips. Technology is one thing, doing it at scale is another. Samsung is close but still behind.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/samsung-says-it-will-beat-tsmc-to-4nm-production-in-the-us
They are still bleeding edge. Samsung is making really impressive strides, but TSMC is simultaneously not resting on their laurels.
If Ukraine has taught us anything, no guarantees are enough.
Ukraine's were Russian honest word.
They had a lot of nukes, shouldn't have given them all to Russia. It was a case of western pressure btw. Not having too many nuclear powers and all that.
ahh... the "Ukraine success formula". I don't think Taiwan leadership is as "strong" as Ukraine's to suicide the country for US diminishment ambitions. About 80% of Taiwan public opinion favours a versions of status quo.
The natural alliance of any Asian country is with Chinese trade. Especially in tech, where Chinese market is 5x that of US, and Asian market larger than the hegemon colonial universe. Sure, countries want independence, but prosperity comes from peace and trade. The US has to spend a lot to "shit disturb" the region.
The best part of global trade is peace it provides. There is a limit to how aggressive the US can be to China, including its Taiwan proxy, before the US and Taiwan become useless to rest of world. But keeping tech out of China is like the drug trade. There exists a nominally respectful of US country willing to turn a blind eye to smuggling/cut outs, and US is forced to buy nominal respect. China also is heavily investing into a delete America program that will eventually achieve success/parity with Taiwan, and with Huawei, seems ahead of schedule.
Oh look, a tankie.
Sorry, I don't subscribe to your misguided arsekissing of China – a genocidal dictatorship that openly wants to invade Taiwan.
Same goes for Russia who you also seem to be fond of.